🕒 Last Updated: 10 February 2026 – Odds and market information correct at time of last update. Political betting markets move quickly; please check with your bookmaker for current prices.

Keir Starmer’s position as Labour leader and UK Prime Minister is facing increasing scrutiny following a difficult first year in office. Labour swept aside the Conservatives at last July’s general election, returning to power for the first time since 2010 with a commanding majority. However, the glow of that victory has faded quickly. Starmer has slipped sharply in the opinion polls, while Labour’s poor showing in the 2025 local elections has intensified questions over his long-term leadership.

Further pressure has come from the controversial appointment of Peter Mandelson as British Ambassador to the United States, a move that has divided opinion within the party and reignited internal tensions. With the Gorton and Denton by-election looming, concern is growing inside Labour ranks. Allies of the prime minister have already begun to push back publicly, bracing themselves for the possibility of a leadership challenge. The Gorton and Denton by-election itself shaped up as a two-horse race between the Greens and Reform UK, with Labour priced as outsiders.

Speculation around the next UK prime minister continues to gather pace. For much of the market’s early movement, Wes Streeting had been installed as the favourite to succeed Starmer. The next Labour leader market continues to reflect that picture, with Streeting the bookies’ pick. The health secretary has since drifted into second place after repeatedly playing down suggestions that he is manoeuvring for the top job, particularly amid renewed scrutiny of his past links to Peter Mandelson.

The momentum has instead swung behind Angela Rayner, who has emerged as the new market leader. Reports suggest the Ashton-under-Lyne MP is prepared to mount a leadership challenge, and with no association to Mandelson, she is viewed by some as a cleaner break from Labour’s recent internal controversies.

Ed Miliband also features prominently in the betting. The energy secretary appears to enjoy broader public favour than during his previous stint as Labour leader, which ended in defeat at the 2015 general election against David Cameron. Further down the market, Nigel Farage remains a notable presence, with Reform UK continuing to poll strongly and keep his name in the conversation.

All of this assumes that Starmer will not see out a full term. For the latest odds on exactly when he might go, the Keir Starmer exit date market currently prices 2026 as a near certainty. A snap general election remains a possibility, and the Labour odds for the next general election have shifted significantly in recent months.