Politics
Gorton and Denton by election odds – Green Party holding off Reform
The Gorton and Denton by-election has shaped up as a genuine two-horse race between the Green Party and Reform UK, with Labour priced as outsiders at 8/1. We look at how Andy Burnham’s blocked candidacy changed the entire complexion of the contest.
Last Updated 2 months ago
🗳️ Result: Green Party WIN (26 February 2026). Hannah Spencer won for the Greens, overturning a 13,000-vote Labour majority with a majority of 4,402. Reform finished second. Labour were pushed into third place in a seat they had held in various forms since 1931. The bookmakers’ favourite delivered.
🕒 Last Updated: 17 February 2026 – Odds and market information correct at time of last update. Political betting markets move quickly; please check with your bookmaker for current prices.
A by-election was triggered following the resignation of Andrew Gwynne, who stepped down on health grounds, and it had the potential to send shockwaves through British politics. Those shockwaves duly arrived.
The contest came at a delicate moment for Keir Starmer, whose leadership of Labour was already under heavy scrutiny. With pressure building inside the party, there had been a growing movement urging Andy Burnham to mount a leadership challenge. Burnham is currently among the frontrunners in the next Labour leader odds.
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That route would have required Burnham to return to Westminster first, likely via this by-election, and to relinquish the Manchester mayoralty, a role he has consistently said he intends to serve out in full. Those plans were effectively shut down when Labour’s National Executive Committee voted 8-1 against allowing Burnham to stand in Gorton and Denton. The stated concern was that Burnham’s resignation as mayor could open the door for Reform UK to capture the Manchester mayoralty in what would be a costly and high-risk campaign for Labour.
| Party | Odds (pre-election) |
|---|---|
| Green Party | 4/7 |
| Reform UK | 7/4 |
| Labour | 8/1 |
| Advance UK | 125/1 |
| Conservatives | 750/1 |
| Liberal Democrats | 750/1 |
| Social Democrats | 1000/1 |
By blocking Burnham’s candidacy, Labour created a different problem. The party faced a serious threat from both Reform UK and a resurgent Green Party. Early speculation that Green leader Zack Polanski would run proved unfounded, with Hannah Spencer instead selected. Reform UK opted for Matt Goodwin, while Labour re-stood Angeliki Stogia, who previously contested the 2024 general election in Chester South and Eddisbury.
Had Burnham been on the ballot, he would likely have headed the market. Instead, Labour found themselves outsiders, with their campaign complicated by the need to persuade voters that they, rather than the Greens, were the most credible barrier to a Reform victory. The result had a significant bearing on the Keir Starmer exit date market, with 2026 now priced at 77.8%.
