🕒 Last Updated: 17 April 2026 – Odds and market information correct at time of last update. Political betting markets move quickly; please check with your bookmaker for current prices.

Keir Starmer’s future as Labour leader and UK Prime Minister is under growing scrutiny after a turbulent first year in Downing Street, with bookmakers now cutting odds on several rising figures inside the party. For the latest on when Starmer might actually leave, the exit date market currently prices 2026 as a 77.8% probability.

Labour stormed back to power in last July’s General Election, securing a landslide victory and ending 14 years of Conservative rule. But the honeymoon period is already showing signs of strain. Starmer’s personal ratings have slumped, Labour’s showing in the 2025 local elections was branded “dire” by party insiders, and criticism of the government’s budget statement has intensified questions over whether his leadership can withstand another year of political pressure.

Those close to Starmer have publicly defended him but behind the scenes, attention is shifting toward who could step in if the party decides a change is needed.

Streeting Installed as Clear Favourite

Wes Streeting, MP for Ilford North and the current Health Secretary, has been installed as the 7/2 favourite to become the next Labour leader, according to Skybet. The outspoken frontline minister has found himself at the centre of Westminster gossip, with reports claiming he is being positioned as an alternative to Starmer.

Streeting dismissed the rumours with a tongue-in-cheek swipe at reality TV drama, saying: “I think whoever’s been briefing this has been watching too much Celebrity Traitors. It’s about the worst attack on a faithful I’ve seen since Joe Marler was kicked out in the final!”

Despite the light-hearted response, his positioning in the betting markets reflects a notable shift in sentiment among political observers. Streeting is also prominent in the next UK Prime Minister odds, where he currently sits at 4/1.

Burnham and Mahmood Close Behind

Trailing Streeting but still firmly in contention are two heavyweight figures with strong support bases inside the Labour movement.

Andy Burnham (7/1) – Once the outright favourite, the Greater Manchester Mayor has drifted from his peak of 3/1 as his path back to Westminster remains blocked. His NEC rejection at Gorton and Denton raised serious questions about whether he could mount a realistic challenge without a seat in the Commons. The market has responded accordingly.

Shabana Mahmood (7/1) – The Lord Chancellor and Secretary of State for Justice has emerged as one of the more compelling dark horses in the field. A sharp legal mind and an increasingly authoritative Commons presence, she has the credibility to attract support from across Labour’s factions, particularly if the party wants a candidate who hasn’t been publicly associated with internal plotting.

While Starmer remains firmly in post, political insiders admit he is entering a critical phase of his premiership. With economic pressures biting, internal unrest growing, and the Conservatives beginning to regroup, senior Labour figures fear that a weakened Starmer could become a liability ahead of the next General Election cycle. The Labour odds to win the next general election have shifted significantly in recent months as a result.

For now, the Prime Minister’s allies insist he will weather the storm but as bookmakers continue to shorten the odds on his potential successors, the question of what comes next for Labour is quickly becoming one of Westminster’s biggest talking points.