The betting markets continue to point strongly towards an early end to Sir Keir Starmer’s leadership, with 2026 now a clear favourite in the Keir Starmer exit date market.
Priced at 2/7, that gives an implied probability of 77.8%, suggesting a leadership change this year is considered more likely than not, whether through a planned transition or mounting political pressure.
Further down the market, 2027 is priced at 7/2, which implies a 22.2% chance that Starmer lasts beyond this year but steps down the following year.
The longer term options are priced significantly higher, with both 2028 and 2029 or later available at 10/1, giving each an implied probability of 9.1%. These figures underline just how unlikely bookmakers believe it is that Starmer will remain in post deep into the current Parliament.
| Year | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2/7 | 77.8% |
| 2027 | 7/2 | 22.2% |
| 2028 | 10/1 | 9.1% |
| 2029 or later | 10/1 | 9.1% |
For those following the markets, the key question is whether Starmer departs quickly or manages to stabilise his position and remain in place for longer. Current pricing clearly favours a near-term exit, though the longer odds reflect an outside chance that he survives the immediate pressure.
Who will replace Keir Starmer?
Alongside the exit market, attention is also focused on who could replace him, with the Next Permanent Labour Leader market already taking shape. Angela Rayner leads the way at 15/8, implying a 34.8% chance of becoming the next leader.
Her position at the top of the betting reflects her high profile within the party and expectation that she would be a central figure in any leadership contest.
Wes Streeting follows at 11/4, which equates to a 26.7% chance. As a senior figure in the current leadership team, he is widely viewed as a leading contender should the party look to continue along a similar political direction.
Further back, former leader Ed Miliband is priced at 9/2, giving him an 18.2% implied probability. His presence in the market highlights the possibility that Labour members could turn to an experienced figure during a period of uncertainty.
Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham is also in contention at 11/2, with an implied chance of 15.4%, reflecting his strong public profile and previous leadership bids.
Taken together, the exit date and succession markets suggest bookmakers are preparing for a leadership change in the near future, with 2026 seen as the most likely turning point and a competitive race already forming among several high profile Labour figures.