🕒 Last Updated: 20 November 2025 – Odds and market information correct at time of last update. Political betting markets move quickly; please check with your bookmaker for current prices.
Speculation over Sir Keir Starmer’s future has intensified following a turbulent fortnight in Westminster, with bookmakers already pricing up the likely odds to be the next Labour leader. For those tracking when Starmer might step down, the exit date market makes 2026 the overwhelming favourite.
The Prime Minister has been rocked by the resignation of deputy PM Angela Rayner, after it emerged she had mistakenly underpaid £40,000 in stamp duty while serving as Housing Secretary.
Questions linger over his judgement following the short-lived appointment of Lord Peter Mandelson as Ambassador to the US, a posting he was forced to vacate after just 24 hours when further details about his links to Jeffrey Epstein came to light.
According to the latest odds, Andy Burnham has moved into pole position at 3/1, giving him a 25% chance of taking the leadership should the position become vacant. Wes Streeting follows closely behind at 10/3 (23%). Burnham, currently Mayor of Greater Manchester, has refused to rule out a return to Parliament, telling the BBC he “didn’t know” if he would stand again as an MP if a local seat became available.
| Candidate | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Andy Burnham | 3/1 | 25% |
| Wes Streeting | 10/3 | 23% |
| Yvette Cooper | 17/2 | 11% |
| David Lammy | 9/1 | 10% |
| Shabana Mahmood | 9/1 | 10% |
| Darren Jones | 11/1 | 8% |
| Bridget Phillipson | 20/1 | 5% |
| Rachel Reeves | 20/1 | 5% |
The case for Burnham centres on his cross-party appeal and his track record as Greater Manchester Mayor, a role he has used to build a distinct political identity outside of Westminster. His clashes with successive governments over transport funding and regional devolution have kept him firmly in the public eye, and he is widely regarded as one of the few Labour figures capable of winning back voters in the party’s traditional northern heartlands.
The complication is geography. His potential candidacy was thrown into sharp focus when Labour’s NEC blocked him from standing in the Gorton and Denton by-election. Without a route back to the Commons, Burnham would be unable to stand for the leadership, a fact the bookmakers are clearly factoring into his price.
Wes Streeting presents a different kind of threat. Where Burnham’s appeal is built on years of regional politics and national name recognition, Streeting’s comes from raw Westminster performance. As Health Secretary he has been one of Labour’s most combative frontbenchers, and his modernising instincts have won him admirers on both the soft-left and centrist wings of the party.
Elsewhere in the market, Yvette Cooper at 17/2 brings vast ministerial experience as Foreign Secretary, while David Lammy and Shabana Mahmood at 9/1 are regarded as credible compromise candidates should the race become open and contested. Darren Jones at 11/1 is the outsider worth watching, young, sharp and rapidly accumulating profile as Chief Secretary to the Prime Minister.
“Burnham moving into favourite shows just how seriously the market is taking his potential return to frontline politics. But the big unknown remains timing. If Starmer goes earlier than expected, Burnham would need a way back into Westminster. Streeting, on the other hand, is already in position and ready to step up.”
Whether Keir Starmer can steady the ship may ultimately determine how quickly these odds shift again. With pressure mounting from recent scandals, the next Labour leadership race could come sooner than expected, and Burnham, for now, has edged ahead of the pack.