Politics
Next Labour Leader Odds: Andy Burnham now favourite to be next Labour Leader
Speculation over Sir Keir Starmer’s future has intensified following a turbulent fortnight in Westminster, with bookmakers already pricing up the likely contenders to be the next Labour leader.
The Prime Minister has been rocked by the resignation of deputy PM Angela Rayner, after it emerged she had mistakenly underpaid £40,000 in stamp duty while serving as Housing Secretary.
Questions linger over his judgement following the short-lived appointment of Lord Peter Mandelson as Ambassador to the US a posting he was forced to vacate after just 24 hours when further details about his links to Jeffrey Epstein came to light.
According to the latest odds, Andy Burnham has moved into pole position at 3/1, giving him a 25% chance of taking the leadership should the position become vacant.
Wes Streeting, the Shadow Health Secretary, follows closely behind at 10/3 (23%). Burnham, currently Mayor of Greater Manchester, has refused to rule out a return to Parliament, telling the BBC he “didn’t know” if he would stand again as an MP if a local seat became available.
Next Permanent Labour LeaderAfter Keir Starmer
Andy Burnham – 3/1 (25%)
Wes Streeting – 10/3 (23%)
Yvette Cooper – 17/2 (11%)
David Lammy – 9/1 (10%)
Shabana Mahmood – 9/1 (10%)
Darren Jones – 11/1 (8%)
Bridget Phillipson – 20/1 (5%)
Rachel Reeves – 20/1 (5%)
Burnham enjoys a strong national profile after his tenure as Mayor of Greater Manchester, where he has repeatedly clashed with Westminster over transport and regional funding.
Though he insists he is committed to serving until his mayoral term ends in 2028, political insiders believe his refusal to fully rule out a comeback leaves the door ajar for a dramatic return to the Commons.
Wes Streeting, meanwhile, has built his reputation as one of Labour’s sharpest performers at the despatch box, with his modernising stance and media-savvy approach winning plaudits both inside and outside the party.
His position within the Westminster bubble means he could be well placed to seize the initiative if Starmer’s grip on power weakens.
Elsewhere in the market, Yvette Cooper, currently Foreign Secretary, is trading at 17/2 (11%) and remains one of the most experienced figures in Labour’s ranks.
David Lammy and Shabana Mahmood, both priced at 9/1 (10%), are regarded as outside chances but could emerge as compromise candidates in a more open race. Rising star Darren Jones, Chief Secretary to the Prime Minister, sits at 11/1 (8%), while Secretary of State for Education Bridget Phillipson and Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves are both at 20/1 (5%).
Dave James, odds analyst at Whataretheodds.co.uk, said:
“Burnham moving into favourite shows just how seriously the market is taking his potential return to frontline politics. But the big unknown remains timing if Starmer goes earlier than expected, Burnham would need a way back into Westminster. Streeting, on the other hand, is already in position and ready to step up.”
Whether Keir Starmer can steady the ship may ultimately determine how quickly these odds shift again.
But with pressure mounting from recent scandals, the next Labour leadership race could come sooner than expected and Burnham, for now, has edged ahead of the pack.
