🕒 Last Updated: 20 November 2025 – Odds and market information correct at time of last update. Political betting markets move quickly; please check with your bookmaker for current prices.
The pressure on Sir Keir Starmer has intensified in recent weeks, with bookmakers cutting the odds on the Labour leader leaving his role this year to 4/1. The shortening Labour leader odds reflect mounting unease within the party following a string of high-profile controversies.
Deputy Leader Angela Rayner resigned after revelations surrounding unpaid stamp duty on her Hove flat, with Labour’s independent ethics adviser ruling she had broken the ministerial code. The scandal shook public trust and exposed rifts within the party. Peter Mandelson was also quietly removed from his role as UK ambassador to the United States amid renewed scrutiny of his historic links to Jeffrey Epstein, deepening unease among backbench MPs questioning Starmer’s judgment in appointments.
Dave James, odds analyst at WhatAreTheOdds.co.uk, said: “The Angela Rayner scandal and Mandelson’s Epstein associations have created a perception problem for Starmer. Voters want a fresh start, but these stories make Labour look mired in the same old problems. That has eroded confidence not just among the public but also within Labour’s own ranks.”
Bookmakers’ latest prices suggest Starmer is unlikely to step down immediately, but the odds for 2025 have tightened significantly in light of the turmoil. The most likely year for his departure remains 2026, priced at 7/4 (36%). You can follow the full Keir Starmer exit date market for the latest pricing across all years.
| Year of Exit | Odds | Chance of Leaving |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7/4 | 36% |
| 2029 or later | 3/1 | 25% |
| 2025 | 4/1 | 20% |
| 2027 | 9/2 | 18% |
| 2028 | 5/1 | 17% |
Dave James added: “Starmer is still in a position of relative strength, but scandals like this weaken his authority. If further cracks appear in the party’s unity, the 4/1 on him leaving this year could look generous. With Labour facing questions over integrity and leadership, the betting markets show there is now no certainty Sir Keir will carry the party into the next general election unchallenged.” With that in mind, bookmakers have already opened markets on who becomes the next Labour leader, with Andy Burnham currently heading the field.