Politics
Bookies shorten odds on Keir Starmer to step aside as Labour Leader this year
The pressure on Sir Keir Starmer has intensified in recent weeks, with bookmakers cutting the odds on the Labour leader leaving his role this year to 4/1.
The shortening reflects mounting unease within the party following a string of high-profile controversies.
Deputy Leader Angela Rayner resigned after revelations surrounding unpaid stamp duty on her Hove flat, with Labour’s independent ethics adviser ruling she had broken the ministerial code. The scandal has shaken public trust and exposed rifts within the party.
Adding further fuel, Peter Mandelson was quietly removed from his role as UK ambassador to the United States amid renewed scrutiny of his historic links to Jeffrey Epstein.
The move has deepened unease among backbench MPs, some of whom are questioning Starmer’s judgment in appointments.
Political analyst Dave James told Whataretheodds.co.uk:
“The Angela Rayner scandal and Mandelson’s Epstein associations have created a perception problem for Starmer. Voters want a fresh start, but these stories make Labour look mired in the same old problems. That has eroded confidence not just among the public but also within Labour’s own ranks.”
Bookmakers’ latest prices suggest Starmer is unlikely to step down immediately, but the odds for 2025 have tightened significantly in light of the turmoil.
The most likely year for his departure remains 2026, priced at 7/4 (36%).
| Year of Exit | Odds | Chance of Leaving |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7/4 | 36% |
| 2029 or later | 3/1 | 25% |
| 2025 | 4/1 | 20% |
| 2027 | 9/2 | 18% |
| 2028 | 5/1 | 17% |
“Starmer is still in a position of relative strength, but scandals like this weaken his authority. If further cracks appear in the party’s unity, the 4/1 on him leaving this year could look generous.”
“With Labour facing questions over integrity and leadership, the betting markets show there is now no certainty Sir Keir will carry the party into the next general election unchallenged.“
