The Best Long Odds Bets At Cheltenham Insider Expert Assesses

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I spend the weeks before the Cheltenham Festival obsessively searching for that elusive commodity: the best long-odds bet. While everyone is talking about the short-priced favourites, my eyes are always drawn to the horses priced at 20/1 and beyond. These are the bets that can transform a good festival into a legendary one. From my experience, finding them requires looking in specific places and understanding the unique dynamics of this meeting.

The first place I always look is the novice hurdles. This is where an unexposed, potentially top-class horse can be hidden. A horse might have only run once or twice, winning impressively but against inferior opposition. The betting market, and often the public, can overlook them in favour of more experienced rivals. If the whispers from the training yard are positive and the horse possesses a top pedigree, a price of 25/1 or 33/1 can look like incredible value come race day.

The big-field handicaps are the other traditional hunting ground for a long-odds winner. Races like the Coral Cup, the Martin Pipe, and the County Hurdle are absolute minefields, which is exactly why the prices are so generous. My approach here is to ignore the very top of the market and focus on horses carrying less weight. I look for a young, improving horse from a top yard that might be slightly under the radar compared to its stablemates. A horse at 33/1 from a powerhouse like Willie Mullins or Gordon Elliott is always of interest.

I also pay very close attention to the “second string” from the major stables. In a championship race, the stable’s number one jockey will ride the obvious first choice, whose price will be short. But the second horse, often ridden by a top-class jockey in its own right, can be massively overpriced. The trainer wouldn’t be running it if they didn’t think it had a chance, and at 20/1 or more, it represents a fantastic each-way bet, often outrunning its odds to finish in the placings.

Another angle I consider is the “forgotten horse.” This is a horse that was highly-touted as a novice but perhaps had a season blighted by injury or a below-par run. They can drift to a huge price as the public and the market lose faith. If they are returning to the scene of a previous good run or show signs of a return to form in their preparatory work, they can be poised for a massive run at a massive price.

The key for me is combining these angles. I’m looking for an unexposed novice in a handicap from a top yard, or a second-string in a Grade 1 race with a point to prove. I never just bet a long shot because the number is big. There has to be a compelling narrative: a whisper of wellbeing, a favourable weight assignment, or a specific track and trip that will suit it perfectly.

Ultimately, finding the best long-odds bets at Cheltenham is about conviction and patience. You have to be prepared for more losses than wins, but the one that comes in makes it all worthwhile. It’s a search for a story that the wider market has missed. For me, that intellectual hunt, the process of unearthing a 33/1 shot that sprints up the hill, is one of the most satisfying aspects of the entire Festival. It’s not for the faint of heart, but the rewards, both financial and personal, can be immense.