Finding the Best Long-Odds Bets at Cheltenham

Last Updated 5 hours ago

In the weeks before the Cheltenham Festival, much of the value hunt comes down to one elusive prize: the best long-odds bet. While the talk centres on short-priced favourites, the horses at 20/1 and beyond are the ones that can turn a good Festival into a memorable one.

Finding them means looking in specific places and understanding the unique dynamics of the meeting.

Unexposed novices

The novice hurdles are the first place to look, where a potentially top-class horse can be hidden. A runner may have raced only once or twice, winning well but against modest opposition, and be overlooked for more experienced rivals.

With positive signals from the yard and a strong pedigree, a price of 25/1 or 33/1 can look like real value on the day.

The big-field handicaps

The large handicaps are the other traditional hunting ground. The Coral Cup, the Martin Pipe and the County Hurdle are minefields, which is exactly why the prices are generous.

The approach is to ignore the top of the market and focus on lighter-weighted, improving young horses from a powerful yard that sit slightly under the radar. A 33/1 shot from a stable such as Willie Mullins or Gordon Elliott always warrants a look.

The stable second string

The second string from a major stable repays attention. In a championship race the number-one jockey rides the obvious first choice at a short price, while the second runner, often partnered by a top jockey in its own right, can be heavily overpriced.

A trainer would not run it without a chance, and at 20/1 or more it can be a strong each-way bet that outruns its odds into the places.

The forgotten horse

The forgotten horse is another angle, a once-touted novice whose season was blighted by injury or a poor run, drifting to a big price as faith fades.

Returning to the scene of an earlier good run, or showing signs of a revival in its preparation, such a horse can be poised for a major effort at a major price.

Combine the angles, find the story

The strongest approach combines these threads, an unexposed novice in a handicap from a top yard, or a second string in a Grade 1 with a point to prove.

A big number alone is never enough. There has to be a compelling narrative behind it, whether a whisper of wellbeing, a favourable weight or a track and trip that suit perfectly.

Finding long-odds value rewards conviction and patience, with more losers than winners along the way, but the one that lands makes it worthwhile. The search builds on using form guides and the case for an each-way bet, with more in the site’s Cheltenham Festival betting guides.