Keir Starmer’s position as Labour leader and UK Prime Minister is facing increasing scrutiny following a difficult first year in office.
Labour swept aside the Conservatives at last July’s general election, returning to power for the first time since 2010 with a commanding majority.
However, the glow of that victory has faded quickly. Starmer has slipped sharply in the opinion polls, while Labour’s poor showing in the 2025 local elections has intensified questions over his long-term leadership.
Further pressure has come from the controversial appointment of Peter Mandelson as British Ambassador to the United States, a move that has divided opinion within the party and reignited internal tensions.
With the Gordon & Denton by-election looming, concern is growing inside Labour ranks.
Allies of the prime minister have already begun to push back publicly, bracing themselves for the possibility of a leadership challenge as the political temperature continues to rise.
Speculation around the next UK prime minister continues to gather pace, with Keir Starmer clinging to power.
For much of the market’s early movement, Wes Streeting had been installed as the favourite to succeed Starmer.
| Candidate | Odds |
|---|---|
| Angela Rayner | 3/1 |
| Wes Streeting | 4/1 |
| Ed Miliband | 11/2 |
| Shabana Mahmood | 10/1 |
| Nigel Farage | 10/1 |
| Yvette Cooper | 12/1 |
| Alistair Carns | 16/1 |
| Andy Burnham | 16/1 |
| David Lammy | 16/1 |
| John Healey | 20/1 |
The health secretary has since drifted into second place after repeatedly playing down suggestions that he is manoeuvring for the top job, particularly amid renewed scrutiny of his past links to Peter Mandelson.
The momentum has instead swung behind Angela Rayner, who has emerged as the new market leader.
Reports suggest the Ashton-under-Lyne MP is prepared to mount a leadership challenge, and with no association to Mandelson, she is viewed by some as a cleaner break from Labour’s recent internal controversies.
Ed Miliband also features prominently in the betting. The energy secretary appears to enjoy broader public favour than during his previous stint as Labour leader, which ended in defeat at the 2015 general election against David Cameron.
All of this, of course, assumes that Starmer will not see out a full term. A snap general election remains a possibility, as does the prospect of Starmer remaining in post until 2029.
Further down the market, Nigel Farage remains a notable presence, with Reform UK continuing to poll strongly and keep his name in the conversation.