Restore Britain are priced at 16/1 to win the most seats at the next UK general election.

The election is not scheduled to take place before August 2029, leaving significant time for the political landscape to shift.

Rupert Lowe’s newly formed party has made an early impression in polling. A recent Find Out Now survey placed Restore Britain on 10 per cent, level with the Liberal Democrats, three points behind the Conservatives and five adrift of Labour.

The party was established following Lowe’s expulsion from Reform UK after allegations of bullying, claims he denies. Lowe had also been publicly critical of Reform leader Nigel Farage in the months prior to his departure.

While Reform UK has drawn much of its support from voters on the right, often at the expense of the Conservatives, Restore Britain has positioned itself further to the right still. The party has argued that Reform was “watering down” its stance on the deportation of illegal migrants.

Restore Britain has already secured backing from Advance UK, previously led by former Reform deputy leader Ben Habib. The party has also received support from Stephen Yaxley-Lennon, widely known as Tommy Robinson.

There are, however, concerns within right-leaning political circles that the emergence of Restore Britain could fragment the vote. Such a split could potentially cost Reform UK seats at a future election and weaken the broader right-wing challenge.

Among its early policy announcements, Restore Britain has stated on social media that it would ban foreign nationals from voting in British elections and repeal the Gender Recognition Act.

A by-election has been triggered following the resignation of Andrew Gwynne, who stepped down on health grounds, and it has the potential to send shockwaves through British politics.

The contest comes at a delicate moment for Keir Starmer, whose leadership of Labour is already under heavy scrutiny. With pressure building inside the party, there had been a growing movement urging Andy Burnham to mount a leadership challenge.

However, that route would have required Burnham to return to Westminster first, likely via this by-election, and to relinquish the Manchester mayoralty, a role he has consistently said he intends to serve out in full.

Those plans were effectively shut down when Labour’s National Executive Committee voted 8–1 against allowing Burnham to stand in Gorton and Denton.

The stated concern was that Burnham’s resignation as mayor could open the door for Reform UK to capture the Manchester mayoralty in what would be a costly and high-risk campaign for Labour.

By blocking Burnham’s candidacy, Labour may have created a different problem. The party now faces a serious threat from both Reform UK and a resurgent Green Party.

Early speculation that Green leader Zack Polanski would run proved unfounded, with Hannah Spencer instead selected. Reform UK have opted for Matt Goodwin, while Labour are re-standing Angeliki Stogia, who previously contested the 2024 general election in Chester South and Eddisbury.

Had Burnham been on the ballot, he would likely have headed the market.

Instead, Labour now find themselves outsiders, with their campaign complicated by the need to persuade voters that they, rather than the Greens, are the most credible barrier to a Reform victory.

Odds correct as of 10 February and subject to change.

Keir Starmer’s position as Labour leader and UK Prime Minister is facing increasing scrutiny following a difficult first year in office.

Labour swept aside the Conservatives at last July’s general election, returning to power for the first time since 2010 with a commanding majority.

However, the glow of that victory has faded quickly. Starmer has slipped sharply in the opinion polls, while Labour’s poor showing in the 2025 local elections has intensified questions over his long-term leadership.

Further pressure has come from the controversial appointment of Peter Mandelson as British Ambassador to the United States, a move that has divided opinion within the party and reignited internal tensions.

With the Gordon & Denton by-election looming, concern is growing inside Labour ranks.

Allies of the prime minister have already begun to push back publicly, bracing themselves for the possibility of a leadership challenge as the political temperature continues to rise.

Speculation around the next UK prime minister continues to gather pace, with Keir Starmer clinging to power.

For much of the market’s early movement, Wes Streeting had been installed as the favourite to succeed Starmer.

The health secretary has since drifted into second place after repeatedly playing down suggestions that he is manoeuvring for the top job, particularly amid renewed scrutiny of his past links to Peter Mandelson.

The momentum has instead swung behind Angela Rayner, who has emerged as the new market leader.

Reports suggest the Ashton-under-Lyne MP is prepared to mount a leadership challenge, and with no association to Mandelson, she is viewed by some as a cleaner break from Labour’s recent internal controversies.

Ed Miliband also features prominently in the betting. The energy secretary appears to enjoy broader public favour than during his previous stint as Labour leader, which ended in defeat at the 2015 general election against David Cameron.

All of this, of course, assumes that Starmer will not see out a full term. A snap general election remains a possibility, as does the prospect of Starmer remaining in post until 2029.

Further down the market, Nigel Farage remains a notable presence, with Reform UK continuing to poll strongly and keep his name in the conversation.