Keir Starmer’s future as Labour leader and UK Prime Minister is under growing scrutiny after a turbulent first year in Downing Street, with bookmakers now cutting odds on several rising figures inside the party.

Labour stormed back to power in last July’s General Election, securing a landslide victory and ending 14 years of Conservative rule. But the honeymoon period is already showing signs of strain.

Starmer’s personal ratings have slumped, Labour’s showing in the 2025 local elections was branded “dire” by party insiders, and criticism of the government’s budget statement has intensified questions over whether his leadership can withstand another year of political pressure.

Those close to Starmer have publicly defended him but behind the scenes, attention is shifting toward who could step in if the party decides a change is needed.

Streeting Installed as Clear Favourite

Wes Streeting, MP for Ilford North and the current Health Secretary, has been installed as the 7/2 favourite to become the next Labour leader, according to Skybet.

The outspoken frontline minister has found himself at the centre of Westminster gossip, with reports claiming he is being positioned as an alternative to Starmer.

Streeting dismissed the rumours with a tongue-in-cheek swipe at reality TV drama, saying:

“I think whoever’s been briefing this has been watching too much Celebrity Traitors — it’s about the worst attack on a faithful I’ve seen since Joe Marler was kicked out in the final!”

Despite the light-hearted response, his positioning in the betting markets reflects a notable shift in sentiment among political observers.

Burnham and Mahmood Close Behind

Trailing Streeting but still firmly in contention are two heavyweight figures with strong support bases inside the Labour movement:

Andy Burnham (7/1) – The Mayor of Greater Manchester remains a popular figure nationwide and has long been tipped as a potential future leader.

Shabana Mahmood (7/1) – The high profile Secretary of State is increasingly seen as one of the party’s sharpest communicators and a serious contender if the top job becomes available.

A Leadership Question Westminster Won’t Ignore

While Starmer remains firmly in post, political insiders admit he is entering a critical phase of his premiership.

With economic pressures biting, internal unrest growing, and the Conservatives beginning to regroup, senior Labour figures fear that a weakened Starmer could become a liability ahead of the next General Election cycle.

For now, the Prime Minister’s allies insist he will weather the storm but as bookmakers continue to shorten the odds on his potential successors, the question of “what comes next for Labour” is quickly becoming one of Westminster’s biggest talking points.

Political betting markets often mirror breaking headlines, and this year’s Nobel Peace Prize race is no exception.

Former U.S. President Donald Trump has surged to 6/4 favourite with William Hill after unveiling a proposed Gaza peace plan, leapfrogging other global contenders.

The Nobel Peace Prize, awarded annually by the Norwegian Nobel Committee, recognises individuals and organisations that have made significant contributions to peace and humanitarian efforts worldwide.

While the award itself is decided by committee vote, bookmakers offer markets that allow punters to speculate on who might win turning international diplomacy into a betting special.

Trump’s Gaza Peace Plan Sparks Betting Surge

Trump’s rise in the odds follows a high-profile meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. During the talks, Trump unveiled a 20-point Gaza peace proposal, which included:

• An immediate ceasefire in Gaza
• The safe release of Israeli hostages
• The establishment of an international “Board of Peace” to oversee governance

While the plan has been met with both interest and criticism on the international stage, it has undeniably boosted Trump’s profile in the Nobel betting markets.

His odds of 6/4 now imply a 40% chance of winning, making him the bookmakers’ clear frontrunner.

Behind Trump in the market, Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms have emerged as strong contenders at 5/2.

These community led volunteer groups have been central in providing humanitarian aid amid Sudan’s ongoing conflict, coordinating relief efforts in areas devastated by violence and displacement.

Their growing recognition on the international stage has been reflected in the betting markets, with their odds shortening significantly from outsiders to genuine challengers.

Other Leading Contenders in 2025

Beyond Trump and Sudan’s grassroots groups, several high-profile names remain in contention:

Yulia Navalnaya (7/2): The widow of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny, widely seen as a symbol of democratic resistance and political courage.

Philippe Lazzarini / UNRWA (7/1): Representing the UN Relief and Works Agency, Lazzarini’s inclusion reflects global focus on humanitarian operations in Gaza.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy (9/1): The Ukrainian president remains on the list, though his odds suggest a lower probability compared to leading candidates.

Alexei Gorinov (14/1): A Russian political prisoner and outspoken critic of the war in Ukraine, whose nomination underscores the Nobel’s recognition of human rights defenders.

While odds provide a snapshot of betting market sentiment, they should not be mistaken for genuine prediction models. Bookmakers set prices based on a mix of public interest, media coverage, and betting volume. This means candidates with high name recognition, such as Donald Trump often appear shorter in the odds than less publicised but serious contenders.

For punters, Nobel Peace Prize betting is as much about following international headlines as it is about weighing the Nobel Committee’s likely decision-making.

Political betting markets thrive on speculation, often capturing Westminster drama as much as electoral reality.

The latest pressure involving the next Labour leader headline involves former Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who has forcefully rejected rumours of defecting to Reform UK yet bookmakers are still offering odds of 4/1 on him making the switch before the next General Election.

What the Odds Say: Johnson’s 20% Chance

Bookmaker Ladbrokes now prices Johnson at 4/1 to join Reform UK, implying just a 20% probability.

In contrast, “No” remains the overwhelming favourite at 1/5 (around 83% implied chance).

This makes a Johnson defection appear even less likely than earlier markets suggested, but the fact it remains priced at all reflects the enduring public fascination.

Johnson’s Public Position: Strong Rejection of Reform UK

Johnson has been consistent in pushing back against the speculation. In an interview earlier this week, he branded Reform UK “extremely dangerous” and stressed that Britain needs a Conservative government strong on defence not one that subscribes to claims that “NATO provoked Putin” in Ukraine.

He went further by criticising Reform’s spending plans, particularly proposals to scrap the two-child benefit cap. Johnson argued that such policies would expand public spending at a time when the UK must “spend less on public services, not more.”

These remarks make it difficult to imagine a credible pathway for Johnson into Reform UK.

Why Bookmakers Keep Johnson at 4/1

So why are bookmakers still offering 4/1? The answer lies in how political betting specials work. Odds aren’t always a reflection of true probability they are also shaped by demand from punters.

Markets like this attract bets because of their drama value. Bookmakers keep them open to drive interest and engagement, even when the politician in question appears firmly against the move.

The Broader Political Context: Reform UK’s Rise

Speculation is fuelled by Reform UK’s growing political profile under Nigel Farage. The party has positioned itself as the most vocal challenger to the Conservatives on immigration, Brexit legacy, and “anti-establishment” politics.

Even if Johnson never considers joining, the very possibility keeps the market alive, especially as Reform continues to chip away at Conservative support in opinion polls.

While Johnson appears locked into the Conservative fold for now, UK politics is rarely predictable. High-profile defections, surprise leadership contests, and sudden realignments have defined British politics in recent decades.

For that reason, bookmakers and punters alike will continue to keep an eye on this market, even at longer odds of 4/1.

At 4/1, the odds suggest only an outside chance that Boris Johnson would join Reform UK — and his own words make that chance seem even slimmer.

However, as with many political betting specials, this market is less about forecasting and more about fuelling engagement with the drama of UK politics.

For bettors, it remains an entertaining punt but not one that reflects Johnson’s stated intentions.