Politics
Boris Johnson 4/1 to Join Reform UK? Bookmakers Still Offering Odds Despite His Denials
Political betting markets thrive on speculation, often capturing Westminster drama as much as electoral reality.
The latest headline involves former Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who has forcefully rejected rumours of defecting to Reform UK yet bookmakers are still offering odds of 4/1 on him making the switch before the next General Election.
What the Odds Say: Johnson’s 20% Chance
Bookmaker Ladbrokes now prices Johnson at 4/1 to join Reform UK, implying just a 20% probability.
In contrast, “No” remains the overwhelming favourite at 1/5 (around 83% implied chance).
Boris Johnson to Join Reform?
No 1/5 83.3%
Yes 4/1 20.0%
This makes a Johnson defection appear even less likely than earlier markets suggested, but the fact it remains priced at all reflects the enduring public fascination.
Johnson’s Public Position: Strong Rejection of Reform UK
Johnson has been consistent in pushing back against the speculation. In an interview earlier this week, he branded Reform UK “extremely dangerous” and stressed that Britain needs a Conservative government strong on defence not one that subscribes to claims that “NATO provoked Putin” in Ukraine.
He went further by criticising Reform’s spending plans, particularly proposals to scrap the two-child benefit cap. Johnson argued that such policies would expand public spending at a time when the UK must “spend less on public services, not more.”
These remarks make it difficult to imagine a credible pathway for Johnson into Reform UK.
Why Bookmakers Keep Johnson at 4/1
So why are bookmakers still offering 4/1? The answer lies in how political betting specials work. Odds aren’t always a reflection of true probability they are also shaped by demand from punters.
Markets like this attract bets because of their drama value. Bookmakers keep them open to drive interest and engagement, even when the politician in question appears firmly against the move.
The Broader Political Context: Reform UK’s Rise
Speculation is fuelled by Reform UK’s growing political profile under Nigel Farage. The party has positioned itself as the most vocal challenger to the Conservatives on immigration, Brexit legacy, and “anti-establishment” politics.
Even if Johnson never considers joining, the very possibility keeps the market alive, especially as Reform continues to chip away at Conservative support in opinion polls.
While Johnson appears locked into the Conservative fold for now, UK politics is rarely predictable. High-profile defections, surprise leadership contests, and sudden realignments have defined British politics in recent decades.
For that reason, bookmakers and punters alike will continue to keep an eye on this market, even at longer odds of 4/1.
At 4/1, the odds suggest only an outside chance that Boris Johnson would join Reform UK — and his own words make that chance seem even slimmer.
However, as with many political betting specials, this market is less about forecasting and more about fuelling engagement with the drama of UK politics.
For bettors, it remains an entertaining punt but not one that reflects Johnson’s stated intentions.
