Music
Mercury Music Prize for 2025 – Bookies have strong favourite
The Mercury Prize 2025 shortlist has been revealed and the bookmakers have installed Sam Fender as the overwhelming favourite to take home the prestigious award.
Launched in 1992, the Mercury Prize is one of the UK’s most prestigious music awards, celebrating the best album of the year from British or Irish artists.
Known for its focus on artistic merit over commercial success, the prize has previously been won by acts such as Arctic Monkeys, PJ Harvey, Dave, and Wolf Alice.
Sam Fender’s third album, People Watching, has captivated both fans and critics, earning him evens (1/1) odds – a 50% chance of winning.
In a fitting twist, this year’s ceremony will make history by moving outside of London for the first time in over three decades. Newcastle’s Utilita Arena will play host on 16 October 2025, placing Fender on home turf as he vies for one of music’s biggest prizes.
| Artist / Album | Odds | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Sam Fender – People Watching | 1/1 | 50.0% |
| Fontaines D.C. – Romance | 2/1 | 33.3% |
| CMAT – Euro-Country | 3/1 | 25.0% |
| Pulp – More | 3/1 | 25.0% |
| FKA Twigs – Eusexua | 4/1 | 20.0% |
| PinkPantheress – Fancy That | 4/1 | 20.0% |
| Martin Carthy – Transform Me Into a Fish | 5/1 | 16.7% |
| Jacob Alon – In Limerence | 6/1 | 14.3% |
| Joe Webb – Hamstrings And Hurricanes | 6/1 | 14.3% |
| Emma-Jean Thackray – Weirdo | 7/1 | 12.5% |
| Pa Salieu – Afrikan Alien | 8/1 | 11.1% |
| Wolf Alice – The Clearing | 8/1 | 11.1% |
Odds analyst Dave James said:
“People Watching shows Sam Fender at his most vulnerable and mature. The title track in particular is a soaring anthem about loneliness and connection that feels both deeply personal and universal. It’s the sort of record that defines why the Mercury Prize exists.”
The main challenger is Dublin band Fontaines D.C., whose album Romance is priced at 2/1 (33.3%). The critically acclaimed project has been described as their most ambitious to date, blending poetic lyricism with jagged post-punk energy.
Dave added:
“Fontaines D.C. have built a reputation as one of the most vital bands of their generation, and Romance continues that trajectory. The intensity of tracks like the title cut shows why they’ve become Mercury regulars – if anyone can stop Fender, it’s them.”
With CMAT, Pulp, and FKA Twigs also in the running, the 2025 shortlist is one of the most competitive in recent years.
But with the spotlight shifting to Newcastle and Sam Fender’s odds continuing to shorten, this could be the year the North East finally claims the Mercury Prize crown.
