Music
Mercury Music Prize for 2025 – Bookies have strong favourite
The Mercury Prize 2025 shortlist has been revealed and the bookmakers have installed Sam Fender as the overwhelming favourite to take home the prestigious award.
Launched in 1992, the Mercury Prize is one of the UK’s most prestigious music awards, celebrating the best album of the year from British or Irish artists.
Known for its focus on artistic merit over commercial success, the prize has previously been won by acts such as Arctic Monkeys, PJ Harvey, Dave, and Wolf Alice.
Sam Fender’s third album, People Watching, has captivated both fans and critics, earning him evens (1/1) odds – a 50% chance of winning.
In a fitting twist, this year’s ceremony will make history by moving outside of London for the first time in over three decades. Newcastle’s Utilita Arena will play host on 16 October 2025, placing Fender on home turf as he vies for one of music’s biggest prizes.
| Artist / Album | Odds | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Sam Fender – People Watching | 1/1 | 50.0% |
| Fontaines D.C. – Romance | 2/1 | 33.3% |
| CMAT – Euro-Country | 3/1 | 25.0% |
| Pulp – More | 3/1 | 25.0% |
| FKA Twigs – Eusexua | 4/1 | 20.0% |
| PinkPantheress – Fancy That | 4/1 | 20.0% |
| Martin Carthy – Transform Me Into a Fish | 5/1 | 16.7% |
| Jacob Alon – In Limerence | 6/1 | 14.3% |
| Joe Webb – Hamstrings And Hurricanes | 6/1 | 14.3% |
| Emma-Jean Thackray – Weirdo | 7/1 | 12.5% |
| Pa Salieu – Afrikan Alien | 8/1 | 11.1% |
| Wolf Alice – The Clearing | 8/1 | 11.1% |
Odds analyst Dave James said:
“People Watching shows Sam Fender at his most vulnerable and mature. The title track in particular is a soaring anthem about loneliness and connection that feels both deeply personal and universal. It’s the sort of record that defines why the Mercury Prize exists.”
The main challenger is Dublin band Fontaines D.C., whose album Romance is priced at 2/1 (33.3%). The critically acclaimed project has been described as their most ambitious to date, blending poetic lyricism with jagged post-punk energy.
Dave added:
“Fontaines D.C. have built a reputation as one of the most vital bands of their generation, and Romance continues that trajectory. The intensity of tracks like the title cut shows why they’ve become Mercury regulars – if anyone can stop Fender, it’s them.”
With CMAT, Pulp, and FKA Twigs also in the running, the 2025 shortlist is one of the most competitive in recent years.
But with the spotlight shifting to Newcastle and Sam Fender’s odds continuing to shorten, this could be the year the North East finally claims the Mercury Prize crown.
The John Lewis Christmas advert only dropped on Tuesday but its emotional new soundtrack is already shaking up the festive betting markets, writes Dave James.
Bookies have slashed the odds on Labrinth’s version of Where Love Lives becoming the 2025 Christmas Number One, cutting it from 25/1 to just 3/1 after an explosion of online searches, Shazams, and playlist adds within hours of the ad’s release.
This year’s advert, titled “Where Love Lives,” tells the touching story of a dad and his son who find their way back to each other through the gift of music. It’s based on the simple insight that as a nation, we often struggle to express how we feel but at Christmas, something in us wants to try.
At the emotional heart of the film is a reimagined version of Alison Limerick’s 1990s house anthem Where Love Lives, slowed down, stripped back, and beautifully rebuilt by Labrinth into a soulful reflection on connection, nostalgia and love.
Within hours of the advert’s debut, Labrinth’s version began trending across TikTok, YouTube and Spotify, with fans describing it as “the most moving John Lewis soundtrack yet.”
Bookmakers now believe the momentum could carry the track all the way to the top of the Christmas charts:
Labrinth’s Where Love Lives Odds
| Market | Odds |
|---|---|
| To be 2025 Christmas Number One | 3/1 |
| To reach UK Top 10 | 5/1 |
| Labrinth’s Where Love Lives to reach UK Top 40 | 6/1 |
Dave James, spokesperson for What Are The Odds said:
“Every year, a John Lewis soundtrack becomes the emotional heartbeat of Christmas but Labrinth’s version feels like a genuine contender for Number One. It bridges generations with a track that’s both nostalgic and deeply moving.”
In a nod to the original, John Lewis has released both versions of Where Love Lives on an exclusive black 12” vinyl, available only in-store.
Side A features Alison Limerick’s iconic club classic, while Side B showcases Labrinth’s reimagined version from the advert, a perfect gift for music and Christmas fans alike.
Despite Labrinth’s late charge, it’s Wham! who remain firm favourites at 1/2 with Last Christmas a seasonal juggernaut that finally claimed its first Christmas Number One in 2023, nearly four decades after its release.
With streaming figures expected to soar again this December, punters still believe George Michael’s timeless classic will reign supreme.
However, the buzz around the John Lewis advert means Labrinth could yet mount an upset, echoing the chart success of past festive soundtracks such as Lily Allen’s Somewhere Only We Know and Aurora’s Half the World Away.
Christmas Number One Odds
| Artist / Song | Odds |
|---|---|
| Wham! – Last Christmas | 1/2 |
| KPop Demon Hunters | 2/1 |
| Labrinth – Where Love Lives | 3/1 |
| Ed Sheeran | 4/1 |
| Sabrina Carpenter | 6/1 |
| Taylor Swift – The Fate of Ophelia | 8/1 |
| LadBaby | 10/1 |
| Sidemen | 12/1 |
From Lily Allen’s Somewhere Only We Know to Aurora’s Half the World Away, John Lewis has a rich history of turning its adverts into chart-topping moments.
With Labrinth’s Where Love Lives, the retailer might just have found its most powerful soundtrack yet and if the early betting markets are right, it could be heading straight for Christmas Number One.
Speculation over more Oasis reunion shows has reached fever pitch after Liam Gallagher hinted at Wembley that fans could see the band back on stage again in 2026.
Online bookmakers have now slashed the odds on Oasis returning to Knebworth, the site of their legendary 1996 concerts to just 1/5.
The rumours follow the band’s triumphant string of reunion shows, which have been hailed as one of the biggest comebacks in music history. Fans have flooded social media with excitement and theories about what could be next for the Manchester icons.
Oasis are now 1/5 favourites to play Knebworth again next year, while they are even money (1/1) to perform at Manchester’s Etihad Stadium, marking 30 years since their iconic Maine Road gigs.
Such odds reflect growing confidence that the Gallagher brothers are gearing up for another major announcement.
“Next year marks 30 years since the brothers’ legendary Knebworth shows, and their unforgettable nights at Maine Road. With such a milestone ahead, it would be the perfect time for Oasis to extend their record-breaking tour after the phenomenal reaction so far.”
The reunion has already reignited a wave of nostalgia across the UK, with millions clamouring for tickets and venues selling out within minutes.
Industry insiders believe a return to Knebworth, a site forever linked with the band’s 90s dominance would be the ultimate celebration of their legacy.
Fan speculation intensified further when Liam Gallagher deleted a cryptic X post hinting at “unfinished business,” while Noel Gallagher dodged questions about a Knebworth return during a recent interview.
The brothers’ newfound chemistry on stage has only fuelled hopes that more shows are inevitable.
For now, the odds suggest something big could be in the works. With bookies pricing a Knebworth comeback as near-certain and Manchester gigs at 50-50, Oasis fans may want to start marking their 2026 calendars because the Gallagher brothers could be preparing to make history all over again.
Taylor Swift has lifted the lid on her fears that happiness might kill her creativity – but her brand new album The Life of a Showgirl proves she can still write a smash without heartbreak.
The superstar, 35, admitted she once worried her best lyrics came from turbulent relationships, but now says she’s learned that contentment can be just as inspiring. The confession has reignited the age-old debate about whether misery really makes music magic.
To settle the score, one expert has gone so far as to crunch the numbers – and even put betting-style odds on whether heartbreak or happiness is more likely to create a hit.
Dave James from Whataretheodds.co.uk comments:
“We’d now make heartbreak a 3/1 outsider when it comes to producing a hit, compared with odds-on at 1/2 for songs born out of happy times. Taylor’s new record is living proof that joy doesn’t kill creativity – in fact, it often fuels it.”
He added: “Listeners want escapism and optimism right now. In 2025, we’re seeing a trend where upbeat anthems are outperforming ballads by nearly 40% on streaming platforms. It’s clear that fans are craving feel-good music.”
Music psychologist Dr Karen Evans agrees, adding: “There’s a misconception that great art has to come from pain. But happiness can give artists a fresh perspective and the freedom to experiment – which often resonates even more with listeners.”
She continued: “Emotion is emotion — whether it’s joy or heartbreak, both can inspire. But it’s refreshing to see someone like Taylor openly embracing happiness as part of her creative process.”
Music blogger and pop culture writer Leanne Peters added: “The old idea that artists have to suffer to succeed feels outdated. People connect to authenticity more than sadness now — and Swift’s latest album captures that perfectly.”
Fans have also weighed in. One Twitter user posted: “Taylor’s proven you can still write a banger without a breakup – she’s basically rewritten the pop rulebook.” Another joked: “If happiness sounds like The Life of a Showgirl, then I hope she stays happy forever.”
The theory is backed up by other stars. Adele has spoken about how motherhood reshaped her songwriting, while Ed Sheeran penned global hits about family life.
Pharrell’s Happy became one of the best-selling singles of the 21st century – proof that upbeat anthems can dominate just as much as ballads.
With The Life of a Showgirl already tipped to break records, it seems the odds are stacked firmly in favour of happiness – and Swift’s latest work might just change the way we think about where hits really come from.