Music
Mercury Prize 2025: Odds and Winner
Sam Fender was the overwhelming favourite for the 2025 Mercury Prize at evens, and the home pick delivered, winning for People Watching in Newcastle on 16 October 2025.
Last Updated 4 hours ago
Outcome: The favourite landed. Sam Fender won the 2025 Mercury Prize for People Watching at the Newcastle ceremony on 16 October 2025.
The Mercury Prize 2025 shortlist was revealed with the bookmakers installing Sam Fender as the overwhelming favourite to take home the prestigious award.
Launched in 1992, the Mercury Prize is one of the UK’s most prestigious music awards, celebrating the best album of the year from British or Irish artists. Known for its focus on artistic merit over commercial success, it has previously been won by acts such as Arctic Monkeys, PJ Harvey, Dave and Wolf Alice.
Sam Fender, the home favourite
Sam Fender’s third album, People Watching, captivated both fans and critics, earning him evens (1/1) odds, a 50% chance of winning.
In a fitting twist, the ceremony made history by moving outside London for the first time in over three decades. Newcastle’s Utilita Arena hosted on 16 October 2025, placing Fender on home turf as he vied for one of music’s biggest prizes.
Odds analyst Dave James said:
“People Watching shows Sam Fender at his most vulnerable and mature. The title track in particular is a soaring anthem about loneliness and connection that feels both deeply personal and universal. It’s the sort of record that defines why the Mercury Prize exists.”
The challengers
The main challenger was Dublin band Fontaines D.C., whose album Romance was priced at 2/1 (33.3%). The critically acclaimed project was described as their most ambitious to date, blending poetic lyricism with jagged post-punk energy.
Dave added:
“Fontaines D.C. have built a reputation as one of the most vital bands of their generation, and Romance continues that trajectory. The intensity of tracks like the title cut shows why they’ve become Mercury regulars, and if anyone can stop Fender, it’s them.”
With CMAT, Pulp and FKA Twigs also in the running, the 2025 shortlist was one of the most competitive in recent years.
The full Mercury Prize 2025 odds
| Artist / Album | Odds | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Sam Fender – People Watching | 1/1 | 50.0% |
| Fontaines D.C. – Romance | 2/1 | 33.3% |
| CMAT – Euro-Country | 3/1 | 25.0% |
| Pulp – More | 3/1 | 25.0% |
| FKA Twigs – Eusexua | 4/1 | 20.0% |
| PinkPantheress – Fancy That | 4/1 | 20.0% |
| Martin Carthy – Transform Me Into a Fish | 5/1 | 16.7% |
| Jacob Alon – In Limerence | 6/1 | 14.3% |
| Joe Webb – Hamstrings And Hurricanes | 6/1 | 14.3% |
| Emma-Jean Thackray – Weirdo | 7/1 | 12.5% |
| Pa Salieu – Afrikan Alien | 8/1 | 11.1% |
| Wolf Alice – The Clearing | 8/1 | 11.1% |
How it played out
With the spotlight shifting to Newcastle, the home favourite duly delivered. Sam Fender claimed the crown for People Watching, with the judges praising its cohesion, character and ambition. More market-led music coverage sits in the site’s music odds, including the Glastonbury secret set odds.
