The odds on Sir Keir Starmer leaving his post as Labour leader in 2025 have been cut to 5/1, amid growing speculation over his long-term future.
Bookmakers report that 70% of all bets placed in the past week are backing Starmer to depart within the year – a significant shift just weeks after Labour’s landslide election victory.
The latest market sees “2029 or later” remain the most likely outcome at 6/4 (40%), suggesting a belief that Starmer will serve a full term or more.
But the sharp rise in bets on a 2025 exit (now at a 16.7% implied probability) points to mounting uncertainty – possibly driven by internal party pressures, public scrutiny, or unforeseen personal factors.
There’s clearly been a spike in activity on the 2025 market. While there’s no official indication of an early exit, punters tend to react to political mood shifts quickly – and this sudden weight of money backing a short-term departure is noteworthy. It could be punters positioning for value, or it could suggest rumours are beginning to swirl beneath the surface.”
Other years remain in the mix, with 2026 priced at 7/2 (22.2%), 2027 at 11/2 (15.4%), and 2028 at 5/1 (16.7%).
With such a broad spread of possibilities, the market reflects both confidence in Starmer’s leadership and the unpredictable nature of British politics in a post election landscape.
| Year | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 2029 or later | 6/4 | 40.0% |
| 2026 | 7/2 | 22.2% |
| 2025 | 5/1 | 16.7% |
| 2028 | 5/1 | 16.7% |
| 2027 | 11/2 | 15.4% |
Where can I bet on Keir Starmer Leaving?
You can bet on Keir Starmer leaving with Bet365. You can also get £30 in free bets for only £10 initial deposit. You will find that the major brands all like to offer odds on Political markets.
