Angela Rayner has surged to the top of the next Prime Minister betting following reports that she has been cleared by HMRC over her tax affairs, with bookmakers now making her the favourite to eventually replace Sir Keir Starmer.
William Hill have cut Rayner into 9/4, giving her an implied probability of 30.8% to become the next Prime Minister. The former Deputy Prime Minister now sits ahead of Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham, who is priced at 3/1 with a 25.0% implied chance.
Former Labour leader Ed Miliband has also seen support in the market at 5/1, while Wes Streeting has drifted slightly to 11/2 despite reports suggesting he is preparing to resign from government and potentially launch a leadership challenge of his own.
Next Prime Minister Odds
| Candidate | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Angela Rayner | 9/4 | 30.8% |
| Andy Burnham | 3/1 | 25.0% |
| Ed Miliband | 5/1 | 16.7% |
| Wes Streeting | 11/2 | 15.4% |
| Bar | 10/1 | 9.1% |
Attention is also intensifying around the timing of Starmer’s potential departure as Labour leader. The latest betting strongly favours a leadership change between July and September 2026, with odds of 4/6 implying a 60.0% probability that Starmer is replaced during that period.
An earlier exit between May and June 2026 is considered less likely at 8/1, while bookmakers give a 16.7% implied chance that he lasts until October to December 2026. Odds of 11/2 suggest there is still a possibility Starmer survives into 2027 or beyond, though the market increasingly points towards a near-term change at the top of Labour.
Month Keir Starmer Is Replaced as Labour Leader
| Timeframe | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| May – June 2026 | 8/1 | 11.1% |
| July – September 2026 | 4/6 | 60.0% |
| October – December 2026 | 5/1 | 16.7% |
| 2027 or later | 11/2 | 15.4% |
William Hill spokesperson Lee Phelps said Rayner’s clearance by HMRC had triggered significant movement across the politics markets, strengthening her position as the leading contender to succeed Starmer.
He added that the combination of Rayner shortening in the next Prime Minister betting and the growing expectation of a leadership change later this year is driving major activity in Labour-related markets.
With internal pressure continuing to build and multiple senior figures now prominent in the betting, speculation over Starmer’s future shows little sign of slowing down.