Politics
Andy Burnham Odds-On to Outlast Keir Starmer as Prime Minister
Andy Burnham is odds-on at 1/10 with William Hill to serve longer as Prime Minister than Keir Starmer, and 1/100 to be the next UK PM after his Makerfield by-election win.
Last Updated 5 hours ago
🕒 Last Updated: 30 June 2026 – Odds and market information correct at time of last update. Political betting markets move quickly; please check with your bookmaker for current prices.
Andy Burnham has been installed as the odds-on favourite with William Hill to serve a longer spell as Prime Minister than Keir Starmer, with the Greater Manchester Mayor priced at just 1/10, writes Dave James.
The market opened after a dramatic fortnight in Westminster. Burnham won the Makerfield by-election on 18 June with a majority of more than 9,200, was sworn in as an MP on 22 June, and within hours Starmer announced he would step down as Labour leader and Prime Minister once a successor is chosen.
Burnham backed to outlast Starmer
A price of 1/10 gives Burnham an implied 91% chance of holding the role for longer than Starmer, who took office in July 2024. He is also a best price of 1/2 to remain in Downing Street longer than Boris Johnson, whose tenure lasted three years and 45 days, and 10/1 to surpass Tony Blair’s decade in power.
Before any of that, Burnham would first need to win the Labour leadership and enter Number 10. William Hill rate that outcome at 1/100, treating his path to the premiership as closer to a formality than a question of if.
Next Prime Minister odds
William Hill make Burnham the standout name in the next Prime Minister market, with the rest of the field a long way back.
| Next Prime Minister | Odds |
|---|---|
| Andy Burnham | 1/100 |
| Angela Rayner | 25/1 |
| Darren Jones | 25/1 |
| Ed Miliband | 25/1 |
| Al Carns | 25/1 |
| Any Other Candidate | 33/1 |
Andy Burnham specials
The bookmaker has also priced up a range of Burnham specials covering how his leadership and any spell in office might unfold.
| Andy Burnham special | Odds |
|---|---|
| Elected Labour Leader unopposed | 1/16 |
| Prime Minister longer than Keir Starmer | 1/10 |
| Prime Minister longer than Boris Johnson | 1/2 |
| Prime Minister longer than Tony Blair | 10/1 |
A William Hill spokesperson described Burnham’s rise to the leadership as a matter of when rather than if, pointing to the 1/100 quote on him becoming the next Prime Minister after Starmer.
Dave James, political odds analyst at Whataretheodds.co.uk, said:
“Burnham’s path to Number 10 has rarely looked clearer. He has the seat, the backing of the party membership and, for now, no declared rival. At 1/10 to outlast Starmer the market is effectively pricing him as Prime Minister-in-waiting, and the only real questions left are about timing and how long he can make the job his own.”
What happens next
Labour nominations are due to open on 9 July and close on 16 July. If only one candidate clears the threshold, the contest concludes at the close of nominations. Burnham is so far the only declared candidate, with Wes Streeting ruling himself out and backing the Mayor, while former Armed Forces Minister Al Carns has not closed the door on a run. Starmer remains Prime Minister until the leadership election concludes.
For the wider picture, see the latest political betting odds, including the next Labour leader odds and the market on when Keir Starmer will step down.
