With just months to go until the 2025 New York City Mayoral Election, the betting markets are beginning to take shape placing Zohran Mamdani, the progressive Democrat and rising political voice from Queens, as the overwhelming favorite to take the city’s top job.
Mamdani, known for his grassroots approach and advocacy on housing and transit justice, is currently priced at 1.25 (80%), signaling strong market confidence that he will succeed Eric Adams at City Hall.
His support among younger, progressive voters appears to be fuelling a serious momentum shift within NYC politics.
Trailing far behind is former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo, running as an Independent, with odds of 7.00 (14.3%).
Despite his controversial exit from office in 2021, Cuomo has maintained a base of loyal supporters and is positioning himself as a pragmatic, experienced alternative.
Eric Adams, who has had a turbulent term as mayor, also stands at 7.50 (13.3%), his move to an independent run raises eyebrows but has yet to shift the market significantly in his favor.
Further back in the field is Republican radio personality Curtis Sliwa, at 34.00 (2.9%), and longshot Jim Walden, a former federal prosecutor and anti-corruption campaigner, at 67.00 (1.5%).
“Mamdani is dominating the early betting because he represents the most energized part of the electorate right now,” said Dave James, odds analyst at Whataretheodds.co.uk. “But don’t underestimate Cuomo’s name recognition or Eric Adams’ incumbent advantage—it’s New York politics, and anything can happen.”
| Candidate | Party | Odds (Decimal) | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zohran Mamdani | Democrat | 1.25 | 80.0% |
| Andrew Cuomo | Independent | 7.00 | 14.3% |
| Eric Adams | Independent | 7.50 | 13.3% |
| Curtis Sliwa | Republican | 34.00 | 2.9% |
| Jim Walden | Independent | 67.00 | 1.5% |
