Politics
Reform UK Odds: Winning Party at the 2026 Local Elections
Reform UK are 1/33 favourites with William Hill to be the winning party at Thursday’s local elections, implying a 97.1% chance of topping the council seat count. We look at the full market and what the odds say about the state of British politics heading into polling day.
Last Updated 1 month ago
🕒 Last Updated: 5 May 2026 – Odds and market information correct at time of last update. Political betting markets move quickly; please check with your bookmaker for current prices.
Reform UK are overwhelming favourites to be the standout performers in Thursday’s local elections, with the latest betting markets pointing towards a dominant night for Nigel Farage’s party.
William Hill have priced Reform at just 1/33 to emerge as the winning party by securing the most council seats, giving them an implied probability of 97.1%. With more than 5,000 seats up for grabs, bookmakers expect Reform to make significant gains across the country as votes are counted. The result will be seen as a major indicator of whether Reform’s position as general election favourites is justified.
| Party | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Reform UK | 1/33 | 97.1% |
| Green Party | 16/1 | 5.9% |
| Labour | 33/1 | 2.9% |
| Conservatives | 40/1 | 2.4% |
| Liberal Democrats | 150/1 | 0.7% |
Reform are well clear at the top of the market, with Zack Polanski’s Green Party the next closest challengers at 16/1, implying just a 5.9% chance. The traditional major parties are priced much further out, highlighting the scale of the shift in voter sentiment heading into polling day. The Greens’ credibility in certain areas was underlined earlier this year when they pushed Reform close in the Gorton and Denton by-election, where they were actually market favourites.
Labour are currently 33/1 outsiders to top the standings, equating to a 2.9% chance, while the Conservatives are even further adrift at 40/1, or 2.4%. The Liberal Democrats are considered highly unlikely to lead the results, priced at 150/1 with an implied probability of just 0.7%.
William Hill spokesperson Lee Phelps said the market strongly reflects expectations of a breakthrough performance from Reform UK. He noted that their extremely short odds suggest they are on course for major gains nationwide, with the scale of support becoming increasingly clear in the run-up to the vote. Phelps added that while the Greens could make inroads, particularly in London, they may struggle to replicate that success across the rest of the country.
The prices for Labour and the Conservatives underline how far both parties have fallen in the betting, with neither expected to come close to topping the seat count. A strong Reform performance here would almost certainly pile further pressure on Keir Starmer, whose exit date market already prices 2026 as a 77.8% probability for a leadership change.
With polling day approaching, the markets suggest a significant shift away from the traditional political order, with Reform UK firmly positioned as the party to beat. Farage himself remains the frontrunner in the next UK Prime Minister betting, and a strong set of local election results tonight would do nothing to dampen that momentum. For those tracking the longer term picture, Labour have recently moved back to general election favourites, but tonight’s results could shift that market significantly.
