The Champion Hurdle market has been turned on its head over the past week, with Constitution Hill’s stunning Flat debut at Southwell reigniting debate over who will line up for the Festival’s opening day showpiece.

Will Constitution Hill Run?

The 2023 champion left onlookers in no doubt about his wellbeing when surging clear by more than nine lengths under the lights at Southwell on Friday evening, a performance that saw bookmakers trim him to 5/2 for Cheltenham.

Yet for all the excitement surrounding that display, serious questions remain about whether he will actually take his place in the race.

Nicky Henderson has been candid about his indecision, saying this week that a schooling session in the coming days will play a key role in determining the final call, with owner Michael Buckley also set to have his say.

The betting exchange markets tell their own story, having opened around 1.77 to run, Constitution Hill has since drifted to approximately 3.0, with the No Run option now trading close to 1.25.

Three falls in his last four hurdle starts have understandably left connections weighing up whether a return to the Flat might be the sounder long-term option. For those tempted to back him regardless, the Non Runner Money Back market at around 7/4 offers a degree of protection.

In his absence, The New Lion holds joint favouritism at 5/2. He may not match Constitution Hill at his absolute best, but he arrives at Cheltenham on the back of a win at the track on his most recent start and carries a consistency that many at the head of the market cannot claim. He looks firmly on course.

Brighterdaysahead has attracted plenty of attention following her defeat of Lossiemouth in the Irish Champion Hurdle at the Dublin Racing Festival, a performance that saw Gordon Elliott’s mare trimmed to around 3/1.

The concern with her is a Festival record that has fallen short of expectations on both previous visits, which makes current odds harder to accept with full confidence.

Lossiemouth sits at 5/1 ante-post, though connections appear to be leaning towards the Mares’ Hurdle, and doubts about her ability to see out two miles at this level on quick ground have not gone away.

With uncertainty hanging over several market leaders, the each-way options become more interesting. Golden Ace, the reigning champion, is available around 15/2 and has won twice at the Festival. She benefited from late drama last year when Constitution Hill and State Man both fell, but she still powered up the Cheltenham hill in style and has twice finished in front of Brighterdaysahead at the course.

Further down the market, Alexei at 25/1 offers a case for value seekers. He was impressive in the Greatwood Hurdle in November and backed it up with a Kingwell Hurdle success stepping into Graded company. He would need to find more to win a Champion Hurdle, but his course record is encouraging.

With Willie Mullins yet to produce a clear standard-bearer, last year’s Triumph Hurdle winner Poniros at 14/1 in the NRMB market may also be worth monitoring as the picture sharpens over the next few days.