Politics
Trump now FAVOURITE for Nobel Peace Prize after bookies see flurry of bets
Bookmakers have now made Donald Trump the frontrunner to win the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize, with William Hill cutting his odds to 5/4 (44.4% probability) after a surge of betting interest in the last 24hrs.
The U.S. President now leads the market ahead of Yulia Navalnaya, widow of the late Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny, who is priced at 2/1 (33.3%).
Trump is reportedly lobbying for the prize in a bid to cement his legacy as a “peacemaker.” Speculation intensified after reports suggested Hillary Clinton – one of his fiercest political rivals – could support his nomination if he secures a peace deal to end the Russia-Ukraine war without Kyiv ceding territory.
The Nobel Peace Prize is awarded by a five-member committee appointed by Norway’s parliament. The odds shift comes in the wake of last week’s US-Russia summit in Alaska, which has placed Trump at the centre of renewed global efforts to negotiate peace.
European leaders including Sir Keir Starmer, French President Emmanuel Macron, and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz are joining Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Washington to underline two key points: any deal must directly involve Ukraine, and it must come with “cast-iron” security guarantees.
Their united front is also aimed at ensuring Trump’s personal rapport with Vladimir Putin does not lead to concessions that would weaken Europe’s security.
“Trump’s movement in the market has been driven purely by recent diplomatic developments,” said Dave James, odds analyst at Whataretheodds.co.uk.
“The idea that Hillary Clinton could support Trump’s Nobel Peace Prize nomination is extraordinary. For one of his fiercest political rivals to consider backing him shows just how significant an achievement ending the war in Ukraine without territorial concessions would be. It would turn the narrative on its head and make his claim to the prize far stronger.”
“If the Putin meeting leads to real progress or even symbolic breakthroughs, voters could see it as a turning point. But Navalnaya’s support is rooted in a deeper moral narrative which is hard to overlook.”
“Trump’s odds have taken a significant flurry of activity in the last 24 hours, largely off the back of his confirmed talks with Putin. Whether or not a peace breakthrough is achieved, the symbolism alone is enough to sway some voters and punters. This is classic Trump, headline grabbing diplomacy that moves markets. The Nobel Committee has surprised us before, and with the current global instability, any steps toward dialogue, however unconventional, can’t be ignored.”
“He remains a controversial figure, but Trump’s ability to dominate the international conversation is unmatched. If the upcoming talks show even the slightest progress toward peace, he’ll continue to shorten rapidly in the betting.”
