Wolverhampton Wanderers take on Liverpool in the Premier League on Monday in a 8pm kick-off at Molineaux.
Wolves can move into 11th by beating the Reds, which would feel like a respectable place for Nuno Espirito Santo’s side to be in after losing star man Raul Jimenez early in the season.
With Chelsea, West Ham, Everton and Tottenham all dropping points at the weekend, fourth place may not be completely over for Liverpool just yet, with a win against Wolves taking them into sixth above rivals Everton.
They’re odds-on 7/10 favourites to complete a league double over Wolves, with the draw 14/5 and a Wolves win 4/1.
After an impressive 2-0 win against RB Leipzig, having utilised Fabinho in midfield to great effect, I do fancy Jurgen Klopp’s side here, but have been stung by them too many times this season to back them.
Given that they have scored in 11 of their 13 away league games this season, though, I will back them to score against a Wolves side with only four clean sheets to their name at home this season.
Diogo Jota should spearhead Liverpool’s attack against his former club with Roberto Firmino not fully fit, while Sadio Mane and Mohamed Salah both scored in midweek.
Craig Pawson officiates the intriguing clash, with the 42-year-old showing both teams at least one card each in 12 of his last 14 PL games. He is averaging 3.93 cards per game this season, having shown three or more in 12 of his last 14, too.
Wolves have received at least one card in 23 of their 28 PL games this season, while Liverpool have been shown at least one in 10 of their last 13. Just as importantly, perhaps, both sides’ opponents have been shown at least one card in 24 of their 28 matches each, reaffirming that both sides possess plenty of players capable of drawing fouls.
Liverpool have had 3+ corners in 25 of their 28 games, with Wolves hitting that mark on 24 occasions, so I’m happy to back 6+ corners combined:
Over 0 Goals for Liverpool, Over 0 Cards for Wolves, Over 0 Cards for Liverpool, Over 5 Corners for Both Teams Combined @ 21/20 (bet365).
A longer shot I really like the look of is BTTS, 1+ card each, 4+ Liverpool corners and 3+ Wolves corners at 4/1.
Wolves have an identical home record to Liverpool’s away one in terms of the amount of games they have scored and conceded in – 11 and 9 out of 13 respectively – so with Wolves’ pace in transition against Liverpool’s makeshift defence, both teams netting is entirely feasible.
In terms of player cards, Ruben Neves and Fabinho both lead their clubs’ domestic card count with five apiece, and can be backed as an 18/1 double (bet365). Adding BTTS takes it to a juicy 40/1, or alternatively you can back Salah to score and Pedro Neto have 1+ shot on target at 75/1 (Betfair).
On that theme, Sky Bet have boosted Neto, Salah and Mane each to have a shot on target to 5/1. Salah and Neto have had 10 and 9 shots on target respectively in each of their last nine starts, while Mane has hit the target six times in his last six starts, so this looks a great price.
Mane is likely to cut inside from the left flank as he did in Budapest in midweek, which could mean plenty of tackles for Wolves’ right-sided centre-back. If this is Leandro Dendoncker as expected, 3+ and 4+ tackles at 5/4 and 3/1 look excellent value (Sky Bet) given that 3+ has landed in four of his last five starts at centre-back and 4+ has landed in two of his last three.
Likewise 15/2 (bet365) is simply too big for the Belgian to take his bookings tally to four for the campaign with Mane and Jota in close vicinity.