Wales take on Switzerland at Baku Olympic Stadium, Azerbaijan, in Group A of Euro 2020 on Saturday at 14:00 BST.
The Dragons are aiming to replicate their magnificent run to the semi-final at Euro 2016, although there is a feeling that key players such as Gareth Bale and Aaron Ramsey may be past their peak.
Likewise, Switzerland have an ageing squad, so this is a key fixture in terms of both nations’ hopes of progressing to the knockout stages.
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Build a Wales v Switzerland bet builder with Bet365:
Switzerland are 23/20 to win what is expected to be a close encounter, with the draw 2/1 and a Wales win 29/10.
Personally I think the bookmakers have got this one about right, but it’s not a match result I’m interested in getting involved with.
Instead, I’m looking to oppose goals here. Neither nation are exactly free-scoring: Wales scored 10 goals in eight Euro 2020 qualifying matches, with Switzerland bagging nine in six if you take away the 10 strikes they registered against the hapless Gibraltar.
Both nations only conceded six goals, too, suggesting strong defensive discipline, which is unlikely to change in a must not lose encounter.
Six of Wales’ eight matches saw under three goals scored combined, with five of Switzerland’s eight doing likewise (five of six if you remove the two thrashings of Gibraltar).
For Wales, this exact record replicated itself in their more recent eight Nations League and World Cup qualifiers combined, with half of Switzerland’s eight games also falling under this goal line, so I’m happy to back it as a starting point.
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Clement Turpin officiates, with the Frenchman generally being fairly lenient over the past season, so I’m not too interested in team cards to be honest.
Instead, I’ll back 3+ corners for each team to receive odds of 21/20. Wales have earned this in four of their last six matches – with defeats to France and Belgium the two exceptions – with the Swiss doing so in five of their last six games:
One player card price which does look a little too big to me is Tottenham Hotspur’s Ben Davies at 5/1 (Unibet).
The left-back made his first appearance in almost three months in the 0-0 friendly draw against Albania last week, so could be a little rusty after his calf injury.
Davies picked up two yellow cards during the Nations League and has been increasingly prone to reckless tackles in recent years, receiving six cautions in 16 league starts for Spurs in the 2019/20 season, for example.
He may resort to this to bail his defence out against the pace of Breel Embolo and trickery of Xherdan Shaqiri, who are both likely to be within his zone should he line up as a left-sided central defender in a three-man defence as expected.
Under 3 Goals & Over 2 Corners for each team @ 21/20 (bet365)
Ben Davies to be carded @ 5/1 (Unibet)
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