Ukraine take on England in the Stadio Olimpico, Rome, in the last quarter-final of Euro 2020 on Saturday in a 8pm kick-off.
This will be the first time the Three Lions have played away from Wembley at this tournament, with Gareth Southgate’s side yet to concede a goal.
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Ukraine, meanwhile, were the only nation to advance to the knockout stages with only three points.
England are odds-on 2/5 favourites to win the match in 90 minutes, with the draw 7/2 and a Ukraine win 15/2.
While England may initially struggle away from familiar surroundings, I really can’t see beyond an England win here.
I do think talk of “it’s coming home” is a little premature with potentially tough semi-final and final matches to come, but not reaching a second successive major tournament semi-final would be a major failing at this point.
Ukraine have been very hit and miss at this tournament and are quite fortunate to find themselves in a quarter-final in my eyes.
They were beaten by Netherlands and Austria in the group stages and probably would have had to beat Sweden on penalties had it not been for Marcus Danielson’s harsh red card in extra-time.
I’ll back England to win and Under 2 Goals for Ukraine as a starting point as I can’t see them scoring more than once with the Three Lions looking so defensively solid.
England have drawn eight yellow cards in their four matches, with Ukraine picking up a card in three of their four games, so I’ll back the Blue and Yellow to receive one.
Lastly, England had 6+ corners against Scotland and Czech Republic, two nations who Ukraine may adopt similar tactics to having conceded 5+ corners themselves in all four of their games so far.
Backing 4+ England corners gives us a nice odds-against Bet Builder.
Ukraine switched to a back five against Sweden and it is likely they will do the same against England, who may revert to a back four having used three central defenders and wing-backs to contain Germany.
Should Jack Grealish start, Illia Zabarnyi and Oleksandr Karavaev both look overpriced to be carded at 6/1 (Sky Bet and Unibet respectively).
Grealish would likely drift inside from the left flank, with right-backs and right-sided centre-backs often finding themselves in the book given his ability to draw fouls.
If Southgate chooses to bring Grealish on from the bench again, then I’d probably rather wait to bet on them in-play to be honest as neither are generally card magnets.
The only other bet which caught my eye is England to win and Harry Maguire & John Stones both to have a headed shot on target each at 50/1 (Sky Bet).
Maguire was a serious threat against Die Mannschaft, having one shot on target and sending another headed chance wide, while Stones scored four goals for Manchester City last season and two for England during the 2018 World Cup.
If England fail to score early I’d expect them to rack up the set-pieces, so this looks a huge price.
England v Ukraine Selections:
England to win, Under 2 Ukraine Goals, 1+ Ukraine card & 4+ England corners @ 21/20 (Sky Bet)
Oleksandr Karavaev to be carded @ 6/1 (Sky Bet)
Illia Zabarnyi to be carded @ 6/1 (Unibet)
England to win and Harry Maguire & John Stones 1+ headed shot on target each @ 50/1 (Sky Bet)