Turkey take on Wales in Group A on Wednesday in a 5pm kick-off.
The Crescent Stars are likely to have plenty of support inside the Baku Olympic Stadium in Azerbaijan, a nation which enjoys extremely close ties to nearby Turkey.
They are likely to need every decibel of support they can get after a dismal 3-0 defeat to Italy on the opening night of the tournament on Friday.
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The Dragons, meanwhile, claimed a 1-1 draw against Switzerland in Baku the following day, but may need to win to have a chance of progressing given they face the Italians last.
Turkey are 29/20 favourites to win the match, with the draw 2/1 and a Wales win 9/4.
Personally I’m finding this match a very tough one to call, with neither side impressing at all in their opening game.
Instead, then, I’m looking towards cards as there’s certainly plenty at stake.
Moreover, Turkey are averaging 2.30 cards across their last 20 competitive matches, and Wales are averaging 2.35 across their last 17.
Referee Artur Dias averaged 5.10 in Portugal and exactly 5.00 in his seven elite European matches last season, so he clearly isn’t shy of a booking either.
Indeed, the 41-year-old has shown both teams two or more cards each in 13 of his last 20 matches in all competitions.
Any overs bettor could tell you that cards have been extremely difficult to come by at Euro 2020 so far, so I feel it’s important to offer a more achievable Bet Builder at a shorter price first and foremost:
Despite only having 36% possession against Italy, Turkey still mustered two corners, with Wales earning four in spite of a pretty limp performance against the Swiss. I can’t see a stalemate either with both teams realistically needing to go for the win.
However, cards are likely to flow more frequently as the stakes in the tournament increase, and the aforementioned stats really do back this one up:
On that note, two player card doubles I like are Joe Morrell & Zeki Celik and Kieffer Moore & Caglar Soyuncu (both 25/1 with bet365).
Morrell and Celik are both likely to be predominantly against two players who were each fouled three times in their opening games in the shape of Hakan Calhanoglu and Daniel James.
Morrell was booked three times in five appearances in Wales’ Nations League matches last year and 10 times in 29 matches for Luton in League One in the 2019/20 season, while Celik was booked twice in qualifying for this tournament and 10 times in 33 matches for Ligue 1 champions Lille last season.
Moore, meanwhile, has been booked five times in his last 12 competitive internationals – including in Wales’ opener vs Switzerland – with European referees clearly not enjoying his physical style.
Soyuncu may not like it, either, especially after enduring a nightmare against Italy. The Leicester defender made four fouls during a hapless display, ultimately being booked late in the game. He’ll also have a certain Gareth Bale cutting inside to keep an eye on.
Lastly, a Betfair boost which caught my eye was Moore and Burak Yilmaz each to have a headed shot on target at 11/1.
Moore scored a fine header to salvage a point against Switzerland and the Cardiff striker averages a headed shot every 75 minutes across his career, while Yilmaz must be due one after being shut out against Italy given that the 35-year-old averaged a headed shot every 94 mins during his country’s Nations League campaign last year.
1+ card each team, 2+ corners each team & 1+ goal combined @ 4/5 (bet365)
2+ cards each team & 2+ corners each team @ 3/1 (bet365)
Joe Morrell & Zeki Celik to be carded @ 25/1 (bet365)
Kieffer Moore & Caglar Soyuncu to be carded @ 25/1 (bet365)
Kieffer Moore & Burak Yilmaz each to have a headed shot on target @ 11/1 (Betfair)
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