With just over 400 days to the next US presidential election, Donald Trump is still odds on to win a second term in November 2020. Love him or loathe him, the incumbency effect is strong in US politics, with the last 5 Presidents from Reagan onwards all serving two terms.
That puts Trump in the hot seat to remain in the White House through 2024.
Unibet, the political betting specialists, have Trump at 11/10 with Elizabeth Warren his closest challenger.
And while Trump’s approval rating continues to plummet, the lack of a clear cut contender from the Democrats is clearly giving him the edge with the bookies as he’s likely to run unopposed for the Republican nomination.
Looking back to 2016, Trump was a long shot to win the Presidency and the multiple gaffes and policy missteps in his rule by Twitter have seen him record the worst approval ratings of any modern President, yet there’s a yawning gulf between his odds and those of his closest Dem rivals.
Warren seems to be in pole position currently, with Joe Biden, Obama’s vice-President and left winger Bernie Sanders both drifting in the polls.
Despite the support of several food and drink PACs, Kamala Harris has drifted out to 16s with Bet365 and Paddy Power with a big gap to the next raft of Dem hopefuls headed by Yang, Buttigieg and Booker.
But massive odds margins can and have been overturned. In 2016, Clinton enjoyed 91% popularity among voters after the first debate and was the favourite to win until polling day.
Smart pundits factor both local and national issues into polls of local voters while backing Trump at longer odds after a negative poll should be a rewarding strategy.
Trump’s 2016 win was a massive upset, with some bookies even paying out early on a Clinton win that seemed assured.
It’s a highly volatile market and one with few solid indicators.
The best strategy could be to watch whether the Washington Redskins win their last home game in the 2020 season. If they do, the incumbent will win say tipsters.