Tottenham Hotspur take on Liverpool in the Premier League on Thursday in a 8pm kick-off.
Both sides come into the game outside of the top four positions, making it a huge battle in the race to qualify for next season’s Champions League.
Liverpool won the reverse fixture 2-1 last month, with Roberto Firmino’s last minute header proving the decisive moment in an enthralling match.
The Reds are 11/10 to do the double over Spurs, with the draw 13/5 and a Spurs win 23/10.
Personally, I think there’s real value in Spurs on the double chance and both teams to score market at 13/8 (Betway).
Liverpool looked to have rediscovered some of the attacking verve they have lost in the last month in the 3-2 FA Cup defeat at Manchester United on Sunday, but at the cost of even more defensive solidity.
The return of Joel Matip and Jordan Henderson should be a huge boost to Jurgen Klopp’s side, but I still expect Tottenham to score at least once given their threat in transition. Indeed, Jose Mourinho’s side have scored in 13 of their last 14 home games in all competitions.
Martin Atkinson officiates Thursday’s huge clash at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, which is usually bad news for cards backers these days as the 51-year-old is only averaging 2.53 cards per game this season.
However, Atkinson has shown an increased willingness to go to his pocket in recent weeks, showing each team at least one card each and 30+ booking points overall in six of his last seven PL games.
Spurs and Liverpool are generally two of the cleaner sides in the league, but given the magnitude of the game, I’m happy to back both to pick up at least one card on top of Spurs scoring.
Spurs have received a card in 14 of their 18 league games this season, with Liverpool receiving two or more in each of their last four league games (and in the cup on Sunday). Spurs’ opponents have received at least one in 16 of their 18 games, meanwhile, with each of Liverpool’s last 18 opponents picking up at least one.
If you’re looking for bigger odds, BTTS, 1+ card each, 3+ cards overall, 4+ Liverpool corners and 3+ Spurs corners is 4/1.
In terms of player cards, my main fancy is Thiago Alcantara if he starts for Liverpool at 4/1 (bet365). The Spain midfielder is undoubtedly a class act on the ball, but off it he still appears to be getting up to speed in the Premier League, with few tougher opponents than Tanguy Ndombele at the moment.
The France midfielder has been one of the league’s most improved players this season, combining physicality and skill like few others in world football are capable of doing. He can turn and drive on a sixpence, and I can definitely envisage Thiago hacking him down at some point.
Moussa Sissoko is also 4/1 and is likely to be used in a wide right role to combat Sadio Mane, who is by far Liverpool’s most fouled player. Sissoko and Serge Aurier made 14 tackles between them in the reverse fixture so it’s clearly an area of the pitch Mourinho heavily focused on.
I also think Joel Matip is overpriced at 11/2 given he will have Harry Kane and Son Heung-Min to contend with, with the treble paying 160/1. Many will turn to Fabinho and Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg and I couldn’t blame you with both being carded four times in the PL this season, but bare in mind Hojbjerg may be on his best possible behaviour with a one-match suspension looming if he is cautioned.
Aurier made a whopping 10 tackles in the reverse fixture at Anfield so I’ll have a bit on the Ivory Coast right-back making 4+ at 11/10 (Sky Bet).
There’s not much else floating around I like the look of to be honest, but I do think Son is overpriced at 21/10 (Betfair) to score anytime given the amount of space he could have to run in behind. 14/1 for the South Korean and Mane to have 2+ shots on target each looks a good price at 14/1 with the same bookmaker, too.