Switzerland take on Turkey in Baku, Azerbaijan, on Sunday in a 5pm kick-off.
With the Swiss on one point and the Turks on none, this is a must win match for both teams if they are to have any chance of progressing to the last 16.
A win could see Switzerland leapfrog Wales into second place should the Dragons lose to Italy, but there would need to be a five-goal swing for that to happen.
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Turkey, meanwhile, could still progress as one of the best four third-placed teams should they win on Sunday, although the chances of that do appear unlikely as things stand.
Switzerland are 8/13 favourites, with the draw 3/1 and a Turkey win 9/2.
Given that Turkey are the only nation yet to score at Euro 2020, it’s little surprise to see their odds around this mark.
Switzerland haven’t exactly been particularly impressive either, but they did probably deserve to beat Wales, who were comfortably better than Turkey.
Rather than predict the match outcome, though, there looks to be an easy way in for an odds-against Bet Builder.
Both teams have received two cards in each of their two matches so far, so I’m happy to back both teams to receive at least one given the amount at stake.
Turkey had 10 corners when chasing the game against Wales, who had four themselves against Switzerland, so I certainly think they can have at least three.
The game state of this match seems like a good game to chase a longshot to be honest, and I’m liking the look of both teams to receive 2+ cards, 4+ Turkey corners and 5+ Swiss corners at 9/1.
Switzerland had 12 corners against Wales, who had seven against Turkey, so if this game remains level for any length of time I think his bet has real legs.
I’m also keen on forwards Breel Embolo and Burak Yilmaz to have Over 2.5 Shots each at 9/2.
Both strikers had six shots against Wales and are by far their teams’ most threatening players. Combining the two bets provides a tasty 50/1 shot.
In terms of player cards, Yilmaz is a fiery customer who was booked against Wales, as was Fabian Schar.
I could envisage the pair having a running battle throughout the game and any potential suspension in the next round isn’t likely to be at the forefront of their minds, so 16/1 (Betfair) for the pair to be carded looks decent.
Granit Xhaka and Okay Yokuslu have managed to stay out of trouble thus far this tournament but that surely won’t last long in a game of this magnitude. The pair are proficient foulers and make another nice 16/1 double.
1+ card each team & 3+ Turkey corners @ 11/10 (bet365)
2+ cards each team, 4+ Turkey corners & 5+ Switzerland corners @ 9/1 (bet365)
Breel Embolo & Burak Yilmaz Over 2.5 Shots each @ 9/2 (bet365)
Fabian Schar & Yilmaz to be carded @ 16/1 (Betfair)
Granit Xhaka & Okay Yokuslu to be carded @ 16/1 (Betfair)