Switzerland take on Spain in the opening quarter-final of Euro 2020 on Friday in a 5pm kick-off.
The two nations will meet at the Gazprom Arena in Saint Petersburg, Russia.
Switzerland inflicted the biggest upset of the round-of-16 by knocking out the outright favourites France on penalties after coming from 3-1 behind in normal time.
Bet on Switzerland v Spain : use code CTALK100 for up to £100 bet credits
Spain, meanwhile, survived a similar scare against Croatia earlier on Monday having led 3-1 before being sent into extra-time, but they ultimately prevailed 5-3 to avoid a dreaded penalty shoot-out.
Luis Enrique’s side are odds-on 4/6 favourites to win in normal time, with the draw 11/4 and a Switzerland win 9/2.
One bet which simply has to be backed is Sky Bet’s Super Boost of Alvaro Morata to have a shot on target at evens.
No player left in the competition has had more shots than the Spain forward’s tally of 15 in four matches, with the Atletico Madrid man scoring in each of his last two games and having 2+ shots on target in each of the last three.
In terms of a Bet Builder, I like the look of 2+ Swiss cards, 1+ Spain card & 4+ Spain corners at 21/20 (bet365).
No side has been fouled more than Spain at this tournament, with Switzerland receiving nine yellow cards in their four matches so far.
Michael Oliver holds the whistle for this clash and he’s generally pretty reliable for showing both teams a card, too, having done so in both of his matches at Euro 2020 and in 16 of his last 20 games in all competitions.
The likes of Breel Embolo and Steven Zuber have enough about them in transition to draw a booking out of Spain, especially with all cards wiped after this stage of the tournament.
Lastly, Spain have had 6+ corners in all four games so far, while the Swiss conceded eight to Turkey and France in each of their last two games.
In terms of player cards, Granit Xhaka is suspended after receiving his second booking of the tournament against France, meaning Denis Zakaria could slot into the midfield.
The Borussia Monchengladbach man was booked twice in qualifying and has amassed 30 cautions in his four seasons in Germany despite not always being a regular starter.
Without any fear of suspension – unless he is sent off of course – I expect him to pay close attention to Pedri in particular, with 12/5 (bet365) appealing for him to be sent off.
Spain’s players are harder to call but Cesar Azpilicueta and Aymeric Laporte appeal at 6/1 and 7/1 respectively as they are likely to be the two players drawn into tackling and potentially fouling the aforementioned Zuber and Embolo.
France right-back Benjamin Pavard was booked for bringing down Zuber – who leads the way for assists at Euro 2020 with four – so a 25/1 double with Azpilicueta & Zakaria looks big.
Lastly, I backed Ferran Torres to score at 3/1 against Croatia and the Manchester City man delivered, so it would be amiss not to do so again at 5/2 (Unibet).
Moreover, Haris Steferovic looked extremely dangerous against France, scoring two powerhouse headers.
Spain have already conceded two headers at this tournament having looked susceptible from crosses, so 28/1 (Sky Bet) on the target man to leap like a salmon and find the back of the net once again looks a very tasty price indeed.
Alvaro Morata 1+ shot on target @ EVS (Sky Bet)
2+ Swiss cards, 1+ Spain card & 4+ Spain corners @ 21/20 (bet365)
Denis Zakaria to be carded @ 12/5 (bet365)
Ferran Torres to score anytime @ 5/2 (Unibet)
Haris Seferovic to score a header @ 28/1 (Sky Bet)
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