Spain take on Sweden in Group E of Euro 2020 in a 8pm kick-off in Seville.
It remains to be seen how Spain have been affected by their recent COVID-19 outbreak, but Luis Enrique looks set to have a full squad available to him with the exception of Sergio Busquets.
Sweden, meanwhile, head into the tournament on the back of an impressive five-match winning run, although Finland (54th) were the highest ranked of those nations.
Spain are 1/3 favourites to win the match, with the draw 4/1 and a Sweden victory 9/1.
Sweden lost five of their six matches in a tough Nations League group alongside France, Portugal and Croatia last year, suggesting they find it tough to compete against the elite European sides.
As such, I think Spain are worthy favourites, and will look to get a bit more juice on them to win.
Combined, 20 of these two nations’ last 26 matches have seen fewer than four goals since football returned last summer, so I’m happy to back this alongside the La Furia Roja win.
In order to make our bet odds-against, I’ll also oppose Sweden corners. They have only had more than five corners twice in their last 11 matches (one of which was against Armenia), while no side has had more than four corners against Spain in their last 10 matches.
By backing Under 7 Corners for Sweden we’re clearly giving ourselves plenty of breathing space in case they are chasing the match from early on:
If you want to double the odds, Spain to win to nil, Over 4 Corners for Spain and Under 5 Corners for Sweden is 2/1.
In terms of player bets, I do fancy Ferran Torres to have a decent tournament after ending the season well with Manchester City.
The 21-year-old scored a hat-trick against Newcastle to add to the match ball he took home during the 6-0 win over Germany last year.
6/1 (Sky Bet) for Torres to have a shot on target in each half looks a good price, although the fear of him being substituted with five allowed puts me off a little.
Two players who look a decent price for a card are Sebastian Larsson and Kristoffer Olsson (both 3/1, both bet365) in Sweden’s midfield.
Spain will dominate possession in there and it could be hard work for the Swedes.
Both midfielders received two cautions each in the aforementioned Nations League campaign and certainly aren’t shy of a card: Larsson has 12 in is last 35 league games in his home country, with Olsson picking up 13 in 41 starts for Krasnodar across the last two seasons.
The double is a no brainer at 16/1, then, with referee Slavko Vincic capable of being card happy on his day.
Spain to win, Under 4 Goals, Under 7 Sweden Corners @ EVS (bet365)
Seb Larsson & Kristoffer Olsson to be carded @ 16/1 (bet365)
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