Spain take on Poland in Seville on Saturday in a 8pm kick-off.
Both sides need a positive result after La Furia Roja drew 0-0 with Sweden in their opening game, while the Poles lost 2-1 to Slovakia.
Spain are odds-on 1/3 favourites to win the match, with the draw 4/1 and a Poland win 9/1.
Frankly I fancy Spain to win this. Luis Enrique’s were a little too slow in possession against the Swedes, but they still created plenty of decent chances and should have found the breakthrough.
Poland simply aren’t as defensively organised or resolute – only Andorra have failed to score against them in their last eight matches – as Sweden and I don’t foresee them keeping a clean sheet.
Spain looked decent out of possession against Sweden and should be able to contain Poland for the most part, too.
As such I am also backing Under 5 Goals combined as they usually keep things tight in tournaments.
Lastly I will back Poland to receive a card. They looked ill-disciplined against Slovakia – with Grzegorz Krychowiak being sent off – and Daniele Orsato is one of the more reliable referees around in terms of carding players, averaging 5.23 cards per game across his career after showing four cards during England v Croatia last weekend.
My confidence in Spain will further increase should Enrique start Gerard Moreno ahead of the misfiring Alvaro Morata up front.
Moreno, who bagged 30 goals for Europa League winners Villarreal this season, looked lively as a substitute against Sweden and will form part of a tasty looking 8/5 (bet365) player stats double for my second selection providing he does start.
The 31-year-old received only 16 minutes in Spain’s opening match yet still recorded three shots, so I certainly fancy him to manage this if he is in the starting XI.
Likewise, Robert Lewandowski had five shots against Slovakia and will carry much of Poland’s attacking threat as always.
I don’t expect him to get many chances but even so, 2+ shots for a man of his calibre is more than achievable, especially if Poland fall behind and have to chase the game as defeat would see them condemned to finishing bottom in Group E.
This bet is as short as 1/2 with Betfair, where I’ll head for my third and final selection.
Lastly, Jan Bednarek has been carded eight times in competitive matches for his country over the past few years and didn’t look comfortable wide in a back three against Slovakia
Mateusz Klich, meanwhile, may have more defensive responsibility in the absence of the suspended Krychowiak, and has been carded four times in recent competitive internationals.
Both are prone to a rash tackle and could grow frustrated and isolated should the Poles fall behind, making a 20/1 double for them to be carded interesting, especially with Orsato holding the whistle.
Spain to win, Under 5 Goals & 1+ Poland card @ 4/5 (bet365)
Gerard Moreno 3+ shots & Robert Lewandowski 2+ shots @ 8/5 (bet365)
Mateusz Klich & Jan Bednarek to be carded @ 20/1 (Betfair)