It’s once again an interesting time in Scottish politics, where talk of another Referendum is well underway.
Many in the nation are still unhappy with Brexit, and have called for another chance to become independent.
As always, however, there are many stumbling blocks in the way should they attempt to force through independence. And that includes when it can take place, and even if it would be successful.
Scotland have previously attempted to make a deal, but the decision backfired when 55% of the country voted to stay in the United Kingdom in 2014.
The “No” campaign won 2,001,926 votes, with the “Yes” campaign getting 1,617,989. First Minister Alex Salmond was in charge back then, but there is seemingly new hope under Nicola Sturgeon.
The current First Minister and leader of the Scottish Nationalist Party succeeded Salmond when he resigned after the defeat. And she is eager to give the referendum another try.
After winning 48 of Scotland’s 59 seats in the 2019 General Election, the SNP may now formally request the power to hold an independence referendum before 2021.
Speaking at the time of the result, then Prime Minister David Cameron welcomed the decision.
His successor Theresa May then rejected a new proposal in 2017, but reports are strongly suggesting that Sturgeon will test current Prime Minister Boris Johnson with another attempt at leaving.
But he has already ruled out another vote, as did Labour in their ultimately unsuccessful 2019 manifesto.
And under the Scotland Act 1998, the Scottish Parliament seemingly aren’t permitted to pass legislation regarding matters reserved to Westminster. That means the odds are somewhat firmly stacked against Sturgeon and her party.
But despite the apparent disapproval, several odds surrounding a potential referendum are available. And they involve when it will take place and what the result will be this time around.
It’s currently 1/5 for another Scottish Independence Referendum to take place in 2022 or later.
It’s 13/2 for it to take place as soon as possible and happen before the year is out. And it’s 11/2 for Sturgeon to wait until 2021.
In light of the previous results, there is still huge uncertainty as to whether or not the nation will decide to leave the UK or not. It’s therefore 5/6 for either a Pass or a Fail for Scotland, meaning voters vote For Independence or Against Independence respectively.