Portugal take on Germany at the Allianz Arena in Munich on Saturday in a 5pm kick-off.
After losing their opening match to France, Dis Mannschaft surely cannot afford another defeat if their chances of progressing to the last-16 are to remain in tact.
A point for A Selecao would almost certainly see them progress to the knockout stages after beating Hungary, meanwhile, but they may sense a great opportunity to finish top of the group and avoid a potential last-16 showdown with England.
Germany are 5/4 favourites to win the match, with the draw 12/5 and a Portugal win 9/4.
As was the case against Les Blues, Germany just look far too short to me here, with the draw and Portugal win both overpriced.
I’ll start with Portugal double chance, then, as while I rate Portugal higher, a draw wouldn’t be a bad result for either side and Germany do have home advantage in their favour with a limited capacity at the Allianz Arena.
I’ll also back Over 1 Card for Both Teams Combined, with this landing in 17 of Anthony Taylor’s last 20 matches in all competitions, including in Denmark v Finland last week.
Backing Germany to earn 2+ corners gives us a nice even-money shot. They had six against France haven’t failed to have two corners in 18 international matches now.
If you’re looking for a bigger price, Portugal to win or draw, 1+ card each team and BTTS is 3/1.
Germany had only blanked in one of their previous 17 competitive matches prior to the defeat to France and Portugal didn’t look completely secure defensively against Hungary.
In terms of player bets, I’m surprised to see Diogo Jota odds-against to have 2+ shots three against Hungary.
Indeed, the Liverpool forward is a shot machine, having had two or more in each of his last 13 starts for club and country, so I’m backing this as a starting point for a stats treble.
Joining him will be Toni Kroos to make 2+ tackles and Danilo Pereira to make 1+ at combined odds of 4/1 (bet365). Kroos made seven against France and Danilo made three in a lively display against Hungary, and it should be another good battle in the middle of the park.
Lastly, Antonio Rudiger will be watched like a hawk by Taylor after appearing to bite Paul Pogba last time out, while Pepe is surely Portugal’s most likely card candidate after Ruben Dias received one against Hungary.
The two are highly aggressive, fierce competitors and make a nice double at 18/1 (Betfair).
Likewise, given that the aforementioned Danilo and Kroos made 10 tackles and six fouls combined, a 34/1 double also appeals.
Portugal to win or draw, 2+ cards, 2+ Germany corners @ EVS (bet365)
Portugal to win or draw, BTTS, 1+ card each team @ 3/1 (bet365)
Diogo Jota 2+ shots, Toni Kroos 2+ tackles, Danilo Pereira 1+ tackle @ 4/1 (bet365)
Antonio Rudiger & Pepe to be carded @ 18/1 (Betfair)
Kroos & Danilo to be carded @ 34/1 (Betfair)
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