Porto take on Juventus in the first leg of their last-16 Champions League knockout tie on Wednesday evening.
The Portuguese champions impressively progressed from Group C with 13 points in second place behind Manchester City, but are languishing 10 points behind Sporting in their league this season.
Porto v Juventus Tips
Juventus, meanwhile, won 3-0 in Barcelona on the final matchday to top Group G, but like their forthcoming opponents have serious work to do in order to retain their domestic title.
The Italians are evens to win in Porto, with the draw 9/4 and Porto 31/10 underdogs.
These prices look about fair to me in a match result which is fairly difficult to predict.
Something which represents better value to me, though, is both teams to score at evens (Betfred).
Although Porto did not concede a goal at home in the group stage, they have only kept four clean sheets in 10 home games in the league, with both teams to score landing 60% of the time as they have not failed to score at Estadio do Dragao.
Juventus, meanwhile, are not the stodgy but effective team of previous seasons. They play a more open style under Andrea Pirlo with mixed results, but impressively won all three away games in the group stages and have scored in nine of their 11 away games in Serie A.
Given the fact they have only kept two clean sheets on the road, BTTS has landed 64% of the time on the road for them, so there does look to be value in backing both sides to score on Wednesday.
In terms of a Bet Builder, I will play slightly safer by backing Over 1 Goals for Both Teams Combined and Over 0 Cards for each team and Over 2 Cards for Both Teams Combined.
Porto picked up a card in each group stage match with Juve only failing to do so in a comfortable win against Ferencvaros, while Spanish referee Carlos del Cerro Grande has shown both teams at least one card each and 30+ booking points overall in 17 of his last 20 matches:
One man who will be pleased by Sporting’s form this season is Cristiano Ronaldo, who will be itching to score at his former club’s rivals’ ground.
The Portugal legend scored an outrageous goal from distance for Manchester United in a 1-0 win at Porto in 2009, which was the last time he faced The Dragons.
As the Champions League’s record goalscorer with 134 goals in 174 appearances, it would seem foolish not to back Ronaldo to score against his old rivals again at 11/10 (Sky Bet).
One price which does look huge to me is Ronaldo and his strike partner Alvaro Morata both having 2+ shots on target each at 11/1 (Betfair).
This landed in two of their three starts together in the group stage, although that was against lesser opposition in Dynamo Kiev and Ferencvaros.
However, Pirlo’s side is largely geared around the two forwards, so any chances they do create against a defensively disciplined Porto outfit are likely to fall to them. It’s a worthy price play.
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