Reform UK have now surged ahead in the betting markets odds and are now favourites to win the most seats at the next UK general election.
With odds slashed to 11/8 (42.1%), they now lead Labour, who have drifted slightly to 6/4 (40%), marking a dramatic shift in public and punter sentiment.
The change comes amid growing discontent with both major parties, and follows weeks of strong polling momentum for Reform UK.
With their message cutting through in key working-class constituencies, many now see them as serious contenders to disrupt Westminster’s traditional balance of power.
“Reform UK have gone from outsiders to frontrunners in a matter of months,” said Dave James, odds analyst at Whataretheodds.co.uk. “Punters are backing them in big numbers, and their rise in the odds reflects real belief that they can outperform expectations, especially if voter turnout favours disillusioned voters looking for change.”
Nigel Farage’s recent surge in popularity has been fuelled by growing public dissatisfaction with mainstream parties and his clear, uncompromising stance on issues like immigration and national identity.
His direct communication style and outsider appeal have resonated strongly with voters who feel overlooked by Westminster politics.
Keir Starmer has faced criticism over a perceived lack of clarity and conviction on immigration policy.
Despite Labour’s electoral success, some voters remain unconvinced by his positioning on border control and asylum, an area where Reform UK has gained ground by offering more definitive proposals.
The Conservatives trail behind at 9/2 (18.2%), reflecting ongoing leadership uncertainty and post-election fallout.
The Liberal Democrats (33/1) and Greens (500/1) remain rank outsiders in the most seats market.
| Party | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Reform UK | 11/8 | 42.1% |
| Labour | 6/4 | 40.0% |
| Conservatives | 9/2 | 18.2% |
| Liberal Democrats | 33/1 | 2.9% |
| Green Party | 500/1 | 0.2% |
