Politics
Donald Trump Slashed to 6/4 Favourite for Nobel Peace Prize After Gaza Deal
Donald Trump has surged to 6/4 favourite for the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize with William Hill after unveiling a 20-point Gaza peace proposal. We look at the full market and assess the other leading contenders including Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms and Yulia Navalnaya.
Last Updated 1 month ago
🕒 Last Updated: 1 October 2025 – Odds and market information correct at time of last update. Political betting markets move quickly; please check with your bookmaker for current prices.
Political betting markets often mirror breaking headlines, and this year’s Nobel Peace Prize race is no exception. Donald Trump has surged to 6/4 favourite with William Hill after unveiling a proposed Gaza peace plan, leapfrogging other global contenders. Trump had previously entered the Nobel conversation as second favourite at 5/2, before punters pushed him all the way to the top.
The Nobel Peace Prize, awarded annually by the Norwegian Nobel Committee, recognises individuals and organisations that have made significant contributions to peace and humanitarian efforts worldwide. While the award itself is decided by committee vote, bookmakers offer markets that allow punters to speculate on who might win, turning international diplomacy into a betting special.
| Candidate / Organisation | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump Sr | 6/4 | 40.0% |
| Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms | 5/2 | 28.6% |
| Yulia Navalnaya | 7/2 | 22.2% |
| UNRWA / Philippe Lazzarini | 7/1 | 12.5% |
| Volodymyr Zelenskyy | 9/1 | 10.0% |
| Alexei Gorinov | 14/1 | 6.7% |
Trump’s Gaza Peace Plan Sparks Betting Surge
Trump’s rise in the odds follows a high-profile meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. During the talks, Trump unveiled a 20-point Gaza peace proposal, which included an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, the safe release of Israeli hostages, and the establishment of an international Board of Peace to oversee governance.
While the plan has been met with both interest and criticism on the international stage, it has undeniably boosted Trump’s profile in the Nobel betting markets. His odds of 6/4 now imply a 40% chance of winning, making him the bookmakers’ clear frontrunner.
Behind Trump in the market, Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms have emerged as strong contenders at 5/2. These community-led volunteer groups have been central in providing humanitarian aid amid Sudan’s ongoing conflict, coordinating relief efforts in areas devastated by violence and displacement.
Other Leading Contenders in 2025
Yulia Navalnaya (7/2) – The widow of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny, widely seen as a symbol of democratic resistance and political courage.
Philippe Lazzarini / UNRWA (7/1) – Representing the UN Relief and Works Agency, Lazzarini’s inclusion reflects global focus on humanitarian operations in Gaza.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy (9/1) – The Ukrainian president remains on the list, though his odds suggest a lower probability compared to leading candidates.
Alexei Gorinov (14/1) – A Russian political prisoner and outspoken critic of the war in Ukraine, whose nomination underscores the Nobel’s recognition of human rights defenders.
While odds provide a snapshot of betting market sentiment, they should not be mistaken for genuine prediction models. Bookmakers set prices based on a mix of public interest, media coverage and betting volume, meaning candidates with high name recognition such as Donald Trump often appear shorter in the odds than less-publicised but serious contenders. For the latest position on Trump’s Nobel odds, see our updated Trump Nobel favourite analysis.
