Connect with us

Data Suggests this politician is winning popularity contest

Politics: Conservatives ‘expected to gain narrow overall majority’ in General Election

Published

on

Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour Party will need a miracle to win the General Election on Thursday 12th December, it seems.

The bookmakers have priced Labour at 12/1 to win the most seats, with the Conservative Party as short as 1/33 to do so.

Winning the most seats, it appears, is a foregone conclusion.

What isn’t one, however, is the Conservatives gaining a crucial overall majority in order to form an effective stand-alone government.

Boris Johnson’s party are priced at 1/3 to gain a majority, with no overall majority 11/4.

The Conservatives have won the most seats in each of the three General Elections so far this decade, but twice without a majority.

In 2010, they opted to form a coalition government with the Liberal Democrats, while after the last election in 2017, a minority government was formed.

A minority government, of course, makes it much harder for the largest party to pass their desired legislation in parliament.

In 2015, former Prime Minister David Cameron did manage to narrowly gain a 12-seat majority.

The bookmakers appear to expect a similarly tight outcome on Thursday.

What will prove crucial, of course, is voter turnout.

Turnout from the public was consistently above 70% in the 20th century, but has seen a downturn since the turn of the century.

In 2001, just 59.4% of adults voted, which was the lowest percentage since universal suffrage was first passed in 1918.

Turnout has been on the rise again in recent years, however, with 68.7% in the last election the highest so far this century.

The bookmakers believe this percentage band is the most likely turnout again this year, with a 65-70% turnout priced at 5/4.

Either side of this, 60-65% and 70-75% are both 5/2, with a return to 2001-esque low levels at 55-60% 9/1.

Including Brexit, Thursday’s General Election is staggeringly the fourth major vote the public have faced in just five years.

Has a form of political fatigue consequently set in? If so, while unlikely, 9/1 on a return to sub-60% levels doesn’t look the worst value.

I'm a freelance sports journalist who has worked for Goal & Bleacher Report amongst others. Get in touch, you're more than welcome to do so via Twitter.  

Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.

Latest News

rangers fc rangers fc
Football11 hours ago

Rangers v Union SG : Watch Match Stream, Live Updates from Ibrox

All eyes will be on Ibrox this evening as the Champions League qualifier second leg continues as Rangers face Union...

derby football club derby football club
Football11 hours ago

Mansfield v Derby Live Stream Broadcast from Carabao Cup Tie

Two of the oldest rivals in the football league once again lock horns tonight in the EFL Cup as Mansfield...

PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven
News11 hours ago

PSV Eindhoven vs Monaco FC : Where to watch live stream of Champions League qualifier

PSV will go up against Monaco later in tonight’s second with one eye on the playoff round and they’ll look...

Watford Football Club Watford Football Club
Football1 day ago

West Brom v Watford Live Stream : What TV Channel is the Baggies game on?

Details on the West Brom v Watford TV Channel and live streaming information from the Hawthorns. Team News and match...

west ham football west ham football
Football3 days ago

West Ham odds to win the Premier League – top 6 finish under threat

What are West Ham‘s chances of winning the Premier League? West Ham have built well over the last two seasons...

West Ham Utd West Ham Utd
Football3 days ago

(Live Streaming) Watch West Ham v Man City : TV Channel Broadcast Information

West Ham have not enjoyed their best run of form in recent weeks; they have no wins in their last...

west ham stadium west ham stadium
Football3 days ago

West Ham v Man City Bet Builder Tips : Haaland and Antonio Shots appeal

West Ham United host Manchester City in the Premier League’s last game of the opening weekend this afternoon. The Hammers...

Manchester Utd Manchester Utd
Brighton3 days ago

Man Utd v Brighton Bet Builder : Tips on Old Trafford opener

Manchester Utd get their season underway with a home match against Brighton FC at Old Trafford. The match cannot quickly...

We are committed in our support of responsible gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose. If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133, or visit begambleaware.org. Further support and information can be found at GamCare and gamblingtherapy.org.


Copyright © 2022 Whataretheodds.co.uk
About Us | Contact Us | Authors | Privacy Policy | Cookie Policy | Terms and Conditions| Help & FAQ |

All odds are correct at time of publishing and are subject to change.