Politics: Brexit a ‘near certainty’ to go through after Conservatives gain large majority

As the bookmakers expected, the Conservative Party secured a majority in Thursday’s General Election.

I’m not sure they or anyone else quite expected the extent of the Conservatives’ domination, though, with the leading party securing a 78-seat majority (with one constituency still left to declare).

It was a dark night for the Labour Party in what was ultimately their worst election result since 1935. They lost 59 seats in total, with the Conservatives gaining 47 and the Scottish National Party gaining 13.

The latter appears to make the prospect of a second Scottish independence referendum at some point in the future more likely.

The former, meanwhile, makes Brexit going through a near certainty.

The Conservatives were the one major party who clearly stated within their manifesto that they would move forward with leaving the European Union, which was voted for in a public referendum in 2016, and it appears to have paid dividends for them.

Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn has already announced he will not lead the party into the next election, blaming Brexit for his party’s poor result:

“Brexit has so polarised and divided debate in this country, it has overridden so much of a normal political debate,” Corbyn said.

“I recognise that has contributed to the results that the Labour Party has received this evening all across this country.”

Now that the Conservatives have secured their largest majority since 2010, Brexit has been priced at 1/20 to occur at some point in 2020.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson promised he would “repay the public’s trust” with a swift Brexit:

“We will get Brexit done on time by 31 January – no ifs, no buts, not maybe,” Johnson said.

Breaking 2020 into two halves, Brexit occurring between January – June 2020 is 1/12 or between July – December 2020 is 28/1.

Given the extent of the negotiations still seemingly required, the latter doesn’t look the worst value despite Johnson’s declaration of intent.

A second referendum not taking place next year, meanwhile, is as short as 1/100.