It’s an all-Championship tie between Millwall and Bristol City at the Den in the fourth round of the FA Cup, and the hosts will be looking to maintain their recent good form against today’s opposition.
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Bristol City have won just one of the last nine meetings between these two sides, losing their most recent encounter 2-0 at Ashton Gate in an unbelievably gutless performance. The Robins, despite dominating possession, registered a meagre lone shot on target in the game – accumulating just 0.2 expected goals.
As far as the FA Cup is concerned, these two sides have had very contrasting fates. Today’s visitors have only progressed beyond this stage once since 2001, failing to do so in 18 of the last 19 years.
Best Millwall v Bristol City Bets:
Millwall, meanwhile, have made it to the quarter finals in two of the last four years, the semi-finals in 2013 and famously made it all the way to the final against Manchester United in 2004, which saw them qualify for the UEFA Cup in the following season.
That was then though and in 2021, Millwall tie games. A lot. The Lions have shared the spoils in seven of their 11 home fixtures against Championship opposition, including all four against sides in the Top 10.
9th placed Bristol City, on the other hand, don’t draw very often at all but they do play close games. While only one of their last 11 away games has finished level, seven of them have been decided by a single goal.
With all of that in mind, I’ll still be backing the Draw at 23/10 with Betfair. The frequency with which it happens in Millwall games, combined with how close the Robins’ games are, makes this great value in my mind.
I’ll also be having small plays on this game to finish in a 1-1 Draw at 6/1 with BetVictor. Millwall have been absolute magnets for this scoreline so far this term, and have seen in land in six of their seven home draws this season. This was also the result the last time these two met in Bermondsey, where all roads apparently lead to stalemates.