Manchester United host Southampton in the Premier League on Tuesday in a 8:15pm kick-off at Old Trafford.
The Red Devils are looking to bounce back after a disappointing return of one point from matches against Sheffield United and Arsenal last week.
Southampton, meanwhile, were hugely unfortunate in their 1-0 defeat to Aston Villa, with Danny Ings’ last minute goal ruled out for an incredibly tight offside call.
Man Utd are odds-on 1 / 2 favourites to win the match, with the draw 10/3 and a Southampton win 11/2.
The visitors could be missing several players through injury, with Theo Walcott, Oriol Romeu, Ibrahima Diallo, Kyle Walker-Peters and Yannik Vestergaard all doubts.
United, on the other hand, have no fresh injury concerns, so certainly appear to have an advantage in this congested period of matches.
Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s side have scored against every opponent outside of the traditional Big Six this season, so I’m happy to back them to do so once again.
However, while I think they will win against Ralph Hassenhuttl’s potentially depleted Saints, their home form is too sketchy for me to back them to win with any real confidence.
Instead, with Mike Dean officiating, I’m going to back Over 0 Cards for each team and Over 2 Cards for both teams combined.
While Dean isn’t quite the card-happy force of nature he has been in the recent past, this has still landed in 11 of his 13 PL matches this season.
United have received at least one card in 19 of their 21 PL games, with Southampton receiving at least one in 16 out of their 20.
To get us to double your money territory, I’ll also back Man Utd to earn Over 0 Corners in each half.
United really need to win this match in order to keep their title hopes alive, so I expect them to go on the attack from the start, with Luke Shaw bombing on down the left against his former club.
United average 2.60 first half corners and 3.70 second half corners per game at home, with Southampton averaging 2.67 first half corners and 3.22 second half corners per game against them away from home, so it’d be a surprise if this part of the bet does not land.
If you’re looking for a bigger price, Man Utd to win, BTTS, 1+ card each team and 3+ cards overall is 4/1.
Southampton have blanked in six of their last seven league games, but this meeting has seen plenty of goals in recent years, with the last five H2H’s each seeing BTTS at an average of four goals per game.
Player cards are difficult to predict given the uncertainty regarding team news, but if Romeu and Diallo are missing, there will be a big emphasis on James Ward-Prowse to break up play in front of Southampton’s defence.
Ward-Prowse was carded in the reverse fixture as well as at the weekend in the defeat to Villa, so 4/1 (Bet Victor) looks a decent price. 11/10 for him to make 3+ tackles (Sky Bet) is also good.
You could double Ward-Prowse up to be carded alongside Harry Maguire (also 4/1) for a nice 25/1 longshot, with central defenders often struggling against the clever interplay and movement of Danny Ings and Che Adams this season.
One price I have definitely got my eye on is Stuart Armstrong to have 1+ shot on target for the visitors at 11/4 (Betfair). He’s usually much closer to evens, but the Scotland midfielder has looked lively in recent weeks, scoring against Arsenal last week as well as at Old Trafford in the 2-2 draw in July.
6/5 for him to have 2+ shots is also a good price given this has landed in his last three starts, and in eight of his 16 league starts overall this season.
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