Manchester United host Paris Saint-Germain in the Champions League on Wednesday in a 8pm kick-off at Old Trafford.
After beating Istanbul Basaksehir 4-1 last week, Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s side will progress to the knockout stages with one more point from their final two matches.
PSG beat RB Leipzig 1-0 in a crucial encounter on the same evening, but due to head-to-head rulings separating sides level on points, Thomas Tuchel’s side will not be able to overtake Man Utd in Group H if they do not beat the Red Devils having lost to them earlier in the campaign.
As such, it should make for a hugely entertaining encounter, as PSG will not want to be relying on Basaksehir or Man Utd getting a result against Leipzig to help them progress.
PSG are narrow 27/20 favourites to win the match, with a United win 9/5 and the draw 27/10.
These sides have met three times in this competition since the beginning of last year, with the away side winning on each occasion, most notably when Marcus Rashford’s last minute penalty completed an astonishing turnaround to take Solskjaer’s side through to the quarter-finals in March 2019.
Indeed, PSG have won five of their last seven away matches in all competitions, with United only winning three of their last seven at home, so I’d lean towards a PSG win with Kylian Mbappe, Neymar and Angel di Maria all fit.
However, the match result is not an easy one to call, with my main fancy in this match cards. Daniele Orsato officiates the match, with the Italian averaging 4.41 cards per game in his 32 career Champions League matches.
Orsato refereed this fixture in the first leg of the last 16 clash in February 2019, showing each team four yellow cards (as well as sending Paul Pogba off), which he also did in the Champions League final between PSG and Bayern Munich in August.
Indeed, in Orsato’s six CL matches last season, there was at least 50 booking points in each of them, while he has shown both sides at least one yellow card each in 17 of his last 18 club matches.
I’m adding Over 0 Cards for Man Utd & PSG alongside Over 4 Cards for Both Teams Combined to a Bet Builder, then. This landed in PSG’s last CL match against Leipzig as well as in the recent meeting between these two sides.
To get it above evens, I’m going to add Over 0 Goals for PSG. As mentioned, the away side has won each of the three recent fixtures between these sides, while PSG have failed to score just once in their 23 CL matches under Thomas Tuchel (the aforementioned CL final vs Bayern):
In terms of player cards, bet365 appear to have the best value, though some prices have already been cut. My main fancies would be central midfielders Fred for Man Utd and Ander Herrera for PSG, with the double paying 10/1.
Fred is averaging over 3 tackles and 3 fouls per game in this season’s competition (as well as picking up three domestic bookings), while Herrera is averaging 4 tackles and over 1 foul per game. The Spaniard has 5 bookings in his last 10 CL starts and is likely to be fired up against his former club. If Verratti (84 bookings in his last 279 matches) starts, adding him makes it a tasty 33/1 treble.
In terms of the bigger prices, Scott McTominay was booked in the reverse fixture and looks overpriced at 4/1 should he shake off his injury to start as expected, as does Victor Lindelof at 5/1. Both are likely to be in Neymar’s left-of-centre zone, with the tricky Brazilian forward fouled an astonishing 44 times in his last 10 CL matches.
I’m also keen on Fred and Herrera in the tackle markets, with Fred making 5+ in two of his three CL starts this season, and Herrera making 4+ in three of his four. Both to make 4+ is 4/1 (Sky Bet); should United use a diamond midfield as expected, it could be a congested midfield, especially with both Neymar and Bruno Fernandes free to drop deep and draw tackles/fouls.