Liverpool host Tottenham Hotspur in the Premier League on Wednesday in a 8pm kick-off at Anfield.
Both teams remained level on points at the top of the table after two 1-1 draws away from home on Sunday, with Fulham holding Jurgen Klopp’s side and Crystal Palace pegging José Mourinho’s team back.
Liverpool are 17/20 favourites to win the match and move top of the league, with the draw and Tottenham win both priced at 29/10.
Spurs’ odds have noticeably shortened within the past 24 hours, suggesting there is growing belief within the punting world that they can end Liverpool’s incredible 65 game unbeaten run at hom in the league.
It remains to be seen whether central defender Joel Matip recovers from his back strain to start, with the inexperienced Nathaniel Phillips potentially coming into the defence alongside Fabinho.
Harry Kane and Son Heung-min, who have 19 league goals between them in their combined 24 starts this season, will pose a serious threat in transition against the hosts’ depleted defence.
Indeed, Spurs have only failed to score once in their last 11 league games (against Chelsea at Stamford Bridge), scoring 24 goals along the way, so I expect them to score at Anfield against a Liverpool side who have kept only three clean sheets this season.
Liverpool, meanwhile, have scored in each of their last 40 home league games, last blanking against Manchester City in October 2018.
Spurs’ defence is strong, but we saw it wilt under pressure against Palace, so I don’t see them keeping Liverpool out to be honest. I’m surprised to receive odds of 8/13 for both teams to score, then.
With Anthony Taylor in charge, I’m also happy to back both teams to pick up at least one card each in what is a huge clash for both sides.
Both teams’ opponents have received at least one card in their last 11 matches, with Liverpool picking up a card in eight of their 12 matches, and Spurs in nine of their 12.
It’s noticeable, too, that both teams’ card rates (both for and against) have generally increased against fellow big six sides this season.
Taylor’s card per game average is down on previous seasons, but he has shown both teams at least one card each in eight of his last 12 top-flight games, and is a bit Mike Dean-esque in loving the big occasion.
In terms of player bets, nothing is particularly screaming out to me tonight to be honest. I’m probably most keen on backing Serge Aurier and Moussa Sissoko in the tackle markets given they will be in the vicinity of Sadio Mané, who is now seven league games without a goal and will be desperate to perform well as a result.
Aurier has made 3+ tackles in four of his six starts this season, and 4+ three times, so 4/6 and 13/8 respectively isn’t bad value for these lines to land again given his direct opponent.
Sissoko, like Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg on the other flank, often fills in at full-back, as was the case at Crystal Palace at the weekend when the midfielder made four tackles up against the likes of Eberechi Eze and Wilfried Zaha. Odds of 4/5 for Sissokoto make 2+ and 5/2 to make 3+ also appeal. (All Sky Bet.)
Given the battle down that side of the pitch, I like that all are 4/1 or above to be carded, too (bet365 or Betfair). Mane and Sissoko have both been booked twice this season, with Aurier ranking top for tackles per game and second for fouls per game for Spurs and has struggled against Mané in the past.
I flagged Curtis Jones for a card against Fulham on Sunday at huge odds, and Betfair don’t appear to have learned their lesson with him 15/2 tonight. Simply too big for a youngster who likes to get stuck in.
Lastly, Sky Bet have doubled up Mohamed Salah and Harry Kane having 2+ shots on target each to 8/1. It’s a good price, but I’m not sure I’d back Kane to hit that mark in a game he’ll likely have to drop very deep to support Spurs’ midfield.
Kane has only had 2+ shots on target in four of his 12 league starts this season, with the only one of those against a top six opponent when Manchester United were reduced to ten men after 30 minutes.
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