Leicester City take on Southampton in the Premier League on Saturday in an 8pm kick-off at the King Power Stadium.
The Saints can move above their forthcoming opponents into fourth in the table if they can win by two or more goals.
Leicester, of course, more than quadrupled that effort with their record-breaking 9-0 away win at Southampton 15 months ago, but have failed to beat the Saints in their last four home games against them.
Brendan Rodgers’ side are 4/5 to move second in the league with a win, with the draw 11/4 and a Southampton win 7/2.
It’s fair to assume that Leicester may have been evens or above had Danny Ings not been ruled out for the visitors due to testing positive for COVID-19.
Losing their top goalscorer is undoubtedly a blow, but Ralph Hassenhuttl’s side have only lost to the two Manchester clubs in their last 15 league games, so I make Leicester a bit on the short side.
Stuart Attwell officiates the clash at the King Power, which is usually music to cards backers’ ears. The 38-year-old has shown both teams at least one card each in 18 of his last 19 PL games, with 17 of those 19 matches also seeing 40+ booking points shown.
I’ll add Over 0 Cards for Leicester, Over 0 Cards for Southampton and Over 3 Cards for Both Teams Combined to kick-off our Bet Builder, then.
What’s been interesting is the lack of goals in Southampton games of late, with the Saints only scoring two and conceding two in their last five games.
Leicester, meanwhile, have only scored three or more times twice in their last 14 league games, with both of those games coming against two of the league’s weakest defences in Leeds and Brighton, while only West Ham and Liverpool have scored three or more against Rodgers’ side.
Given that I’m struggling to envisage either side scoring three or conceding three goals, then, I’ll add Under 5 Goals for Both Teams Combined to bring our Bet Builder above evens:
In terms of player cards, Leicester have actually received 10 more cards (35) than Southampton (25) so far this season, so Wilfried Ndidi looks a great price at 7/2 (bet365).
Oriol Romeu is an injury doubt but if he does start ahead of Ibrahima Diallo, 16/1 for the tough-tackling holding midfield pair both to be booked is a lovely price with Attwell in charge.
If Romeu’s calf issue keeps him out of the side, pairing Ndidi up with Diallo or James Ward-Prowse is a whopping 28/1. You could add Jamie Vardy to score to Romeu for 33/1 and Diallo/JWP for 50/1.
There’s some other big card prices, too, with James Justin 13/2 standing out in particular, especially if Moussa Djenepo starts down Southampton’s left flank.
James Maddison is in hot form at the moment, which increases the chances of one or two of Southampton’s central midfielders being booked (and Vardy scoring!).
The England midfielder has tested the opposition goalkeeper six times himself in his last five league starts. Theo Walcott could start in Ings’ place up front, meanwhile, but either way the forward is clearly capable of unleashing, having had eight shots on target in his last nine league games. The pair are 27/10 to each have a shot on target, and 37/1 to have two or more each (Betfair), which both appeal.
Both of these sides like to press off the ball for the most part, meanwhile, so heading to Sky Bet’s tackles market could be worthwhile.
Timothy Castagne has made 4+ tackles in two of his three starts since returning from injury, and could have Kyle Walker-Peters and Walcott to deal with down Leicester’s left flank, so 9/4 is a decent price for the Belgian full-back to get stuck in once again.
Jack Stephens also looks a big price to make 3+ at 11/4 considering the Southampton centre-back has managed this in four of his last six starts.
Romeu is evens to make 4+, too, which he has done in nine of his 15 league starts this season. If the Spaniard doesn’t start, Ward-Prowse can be backed to make 3+ at 11/10, having also landed this mark nine times (albeit in two more starts), while Youri Tielmans should be forced into being busy enough in midfield to make 2+ at 4/6 having also hit this mark nine times this season.