Juventus take on Porto in the Champions League last-16 knockout stage on Tuesday, with the Italian side trailing 2-1 from the first leg in Portugal.
Andrea Pirlo’s side are odds-on 2/5 favourites to win, with the draw 15/4 and a Porto win 13/2.
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Juve are 4/7 to qualify, with Porto considered 5/4 shots to reach the quarter-final.
With Juventus winning 10 of 11 home matches in all competitions since the turn of the year, with a 0-0 draw with Inter Milan the only time they have been denied victory on home soil in that timeframe, I fancy them to win this.
Indeed, Pirlo’s side were victims of their own downfall in Porto, with Rodrigo Bentancur’s terrible back-pass putting Wojciech Szczesny in all sorts of trouble as they fell behind within two minutes.
I can’t see them being so careless on Tuesday, while Porto have not won an away game in the Champions League knockout stage since winning the competition in 2004.
Juventus, on the other hand, have won eight of their last 10 CL home games, and with a rested Cristiano Ronaldo they should have enough about them to get the win.
I’ll back Juve to win and Under 5 Goals for Both Teams Combined, then, which still covers the possibility of Juve winning 2-1 and the game going to extra-time.
With Bjorn Kuipers officiating I’m not interested in backing cards (even if you would have to assume there will be at least a couple given the stakes) as the Dutch official is averaging less than two cards per game in European competitions this season.
Juve have earned 4+ corners in 11 of their 12 league games since the turn of the year, with both teams having six in the reverse fixture. With the Italians having to chase the game, I’ll back them to hit four or more once again:
Juventus to win, Under 5 Goals for Both Teams Combined, Over 3 Corners for Juventus @ 21/20 (bet365).
With 67 CL knockout goals to his name, it’s impossible to ignore Ronaldo, who will be determined to bounce back after blanking in the reverse tie against his beloved Sporting’s fiercest rivals.
Pirlo only used the 36-year-old for 20 minutes from the bench in Saturday’s 3-1 win against Lazio, too, so Ronaldo should be fit and raring to go.
As such, I’m keen on him scoring twice at 16/5 (William Hill), while 7/1 for him to score a header (Sky Bet) also appeals given that he scored two against Crotone recently.