Italy take on Wales at Stadio Olimpico, Rome, on Sunday in a 5pm kick-off.
Italy have already progressed but need a point to be sure of topping Group A, while providing Wales do not get heavily beaten, they should have enough already on the board to reach the last-16.
Italy are 8/15 favourites to win the match, with the draw 11/4 and a Wales win 13/2.
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The Azzurri have been the most convincing team at the tournament so far, beating Turkey and Switzerland both 3-0.
The Dragons, meanwhile, were much improved from their 1-1 draw against the Swiss when beating Turkey 2-0.
This is a tough game to predict, particularly with both managers likely to be tempted to rest a few key players.
Italy will be without Giorgio Chiellini after the defender went off injured against Switzerland, while Marco Verratti will remain out.
Andrea Belotti and Federico Chiesa could start in attack to provide Ciro Immobile and Lorenzo Insigne with a breather.
Whatever team Roberto Mancini picks, though, with the way they are playing I think they’ll have a little too much for Wales.
As such I’m going to keep things simple and back Italy to win & Under 4 Cards at evens (bet365).
Referee Ovidiu Hategan averaged fewer than three cards in European competition last season and I can’t see too many bookings in this one given the lack of jeopardy in the game.
Italy haven’t received a card yet, while two of Wales’ three came in the last minute against Turkey after a scrap involving Burak Yilmaz.
If you’re looking for a bigger price, Italy to win, Under 4 Goals, Under 3 Cards & 4+ Italy corners is 10/3.
Wales conceded 12 and 10 corners to Switzerland and Turkey respectively, with Italy looking extremely solid defensively so far.
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