Fulham take on West Ham United in the Premier League on Saturday in a 5:30pm kick-off at Craven Cottage.
Scott Parker’s side are now eight points adrift of safety, so head into this London derby in desperate need of a victory.
West Ham, meanwhile, will move back above Liverpool into fourth place if they can win a fourth successive away match.
The Hammers are 21/20 to do so, with the draw 5/2 and a Fulham win 13/5.
With Fulham losing three straight home games and West Ham winning three straight away games, there’s definitely value in backing David Moyes’ side to win this match at above evens.
It will undoubtedly be a tight encounter, with Fulham very rarely soundly beaten these days, but West Ham have found a knack of winning tight games.
However, with Fulham only keeping three clean sheets this season and West Ham only blanking on three occasions, I’ll play safe by backing the Hammers to score at least once as it would not particularly surprise me if this match finished 1-1 either.
With Mike Dean in charge and Fulham possessing the worst disciplinary record in the division, cards are of interest here.
Parker’s side have received 2+ cards in 17 of their 21 PL games this season, so while sides don’t generally pick up lots of cards against West Ham, I’ll chance my arm that Fulham do so again with Dean one of the stricter referees around and the Cottagers likely to be fighting for their lives.
If West Ham can take the lead as I expect them to, this will only help the bet as they’ll likely play on the counter thereafter, leaving Fulham susceptible to tactical fouling:
If you’re looking for a bigger price, West Ham to win, 2+ Fulham cards, 1+ West Ham card and 7+ corners for both teams combined is 4/1.
Dean has shown each team at least one card each and 30+ booking points overall in seven of his last eight PL games, with 38 of these sides’ 43 combined league games this season hitting that corner mark.
One player I am keen on to be carded once again is Harrison Reed, who was booked in midweek for one too many hacks at Leicester’s James Maddison.
With Jesse Lingard, Said Benrahma and Tomas Soucek roaming behind Michail Antonio, Reed is likely to be busy once again, with the former Southampton midfielder not afraid to cynically stop a counter-attack, as four yellow cards in his 13 starts this season shows. He’s best priced 4/1 (Bet Victor).
I would not be surprised to see Joachim Anderson join him in the book, either, as the central defender may lack the physicality to deal with Michail Antonio. The double pays 18/1, while adding Antonio to score (13/8) pays 45/1 (bet365).