Fulham host Manchester United in the Premier League in a 8:15pm kick-off at Craven Cottage.
The Cottagers can move to within a point of Burnley by springing an upset, having drawn five of their last six games.
United, meanwhile, will be guaranteed top spot for another week if they can beat Scott Parker’s side.
Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s team are odds-on 8/15 favourites to do so, with the draw 10/3 and a Fulham win 5/1.
Fulham will be missing Bobby Reid and Antonee Robison through suspension, while Solskjaer may make a few changes with another match against Liverpool in the FA Cup on Sunday.
I think the Red Devils are decent value to win here given that they have won seven of their nine league games on the road, with the two they failed to win very respectable draws at Leicester and Liverpool.
It’s unlikely to be easy for them, though, with Fulham only losing one of their last 14 league games by more than one goal (which was a 2-0 defeat at Manchester City).
One thing Fulham do usually guarantee is cards, though, with Parker’s side picking up at least one card in 16 of their 17 league games and two or more in 14 out of 17.
Martin Atkinson officiates, though, which is generally bad news for cards backers. The 49-year-old is only averaging 2.43 cards per game this season, although if you look at his last six games since the start of December, that average does creep up to 3.33.
I’ll play safe by backing just the one Fulham card, though, alongside a United win at 4/5.
To give us a double-your-money builder, we can also back Under 6 Goals for Both Teams Combined and Over 4 Corners for Both Teams Combined:
Only both sides’ crazy games against Leeds and United’s heavy defeat to Tottenham have gone above this goal line this season, with all bar one of the teams’ 35 combined games seeing 5+ corners taken.
If you’re looking for a bigger price, we can back Man Utd to win, 2+ Fulham cards, 1+ Man Utd card and Under 4 Goals at 5/1.
United have received a card themselves in 16 of their 18 PL games, while only two of Fulham’s 17 games have had more than three goals scored at either end this season, and United have looked sturdier defensively of late.
In terms of player bets, I’m amazed to see Bruno Fernandes still priced at 13/10 (Betfair) to have 2+ shots on target. The attacking midfielder has landed this in his last three league games and in five of his eight starts away from home in the league this season. Fulham should sit deep, so he’ll probably look to strike from range on a few occasions, while also being ready to take any penalty which may be awarded.
Ademola Lookman and Ivan Cavaleiro are both 5/6 (Betfair) to test David De Gea at least once, meanwhile. Lookman has had at least one shot on target in nine of his 12 league starts, with Cavaleiro testing the opposition goalkeeper in six of his eight starts.
Pairing these two with Fernandes to have 2+ gives us a nice 9/1 treble, while adding Paul Pogba, who has had four shots on target across his last four starts, increases it to 20/1.
Lookman is comfortably Fulham’s most direct player and draws a lot of tackles and fouls as a result, with Cesar Azpilicueta picking up a yellow card and making five tackles against Fulham on Saturday. Lookman should have another fascinating battle against Aaron Wan-Bissaka, with the Man Utd well-priced at evens (bet365) to make 4+ tackles. This has landed in seven of Wan-Bissaka’s last eight league games.
With Atkinson officiating I’m not too interested in player cards, but 8/1 (bet365) is definitely too big for Wan-Bissaka to be carded given Lookman’s dribbling ability. Lookman has been carded three times himself this season, meanwhile, with the double paying a massive 80/1.