France take on Germany in Group F on Tuesday in a 8pm kick-off at the Allianz Arena, Munich.
With these two nations winning the last two World Cup’s, this is undoubtedly the highest profile clash of Euro 2020 so far.
Outright favourites France will be expected to lay a marker against Germany, who will wave goodbye to manager Joachim Low at the end of this tournament after 15 years in charge.
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Les Bleus are 13/8 favourites to win the match, with the draw 11/5 and a Germany win 15/8.
Home advantage must have been heavily factored into these odds, as I’d expect France to be much closer to evens than this otherwise.
I’m just not convinced it will make an awful lot of difference on the day in all honesty.
Didier Deschamps have lost only one of their last 20 matches (a shock 2-0 defeat to Finland in a friendly) and look good value for their tag as favourites, especially with Karim Benzema leading the line.
Germany, on the other hand, have been struggling for a country of their great standards, particularly defensively.
Indeed, Die Mannschaft have kept just three clean sheets in their last 13 matches since football resumed last year, with the likes of Latvia, North Macedonia, Turkey, Ukraine (twice) and Switzerland (twice) all scoring past them in the past year.
With Benzema, Antoine Griezmann and Kylian Mbappe in attack, I just can’t see France blanking tonight having only done so in two of their last 20 games (vs. Finland and Portugal).
With Carlos del Cerro Grande holding the whistle, I’ll also back these two great rivals to receive a card each. This has landed in 17 of the Spaniard’s last 20 matches, with both teams picking up two or more each in half of them.
In terms of a bigger price, we can switch this to both cards receiving a card in the second half, with almost 70% of the cards shown at Euro 2020 so far coming in the second half.
I’ll also back France to win and Les Bleus to earn 4+ corners to receive odds of 10/1. Only Portugal have restricted them to fewer than this amount in their last 13 games.
If I was to lean anywhere in the player cards market it’d probably be towards Toni Kroos at 9/2 (Betfair), N’Golo Kante at 9/2 (bet365) and Ilkay Gundogan at 11/2 (bet365).
It could be a tough evening for the pair in Germany’s midfield, while Kante was booked twice in France’s Nations League campaign. 28/1 and 40/1 are solid prices for Kante with Kroos & Gundogan respectively.
However, I’m choosing to delve into bet365’s player stats for the first time this tournament. Chelsea duo N’Golo Kante and Antonio Rudiger ended the season in tremendous form for their clubs, and have been priced at 10/11 and 5/4 to make 3+ and 2+ tackles respectively.
Kante hit this line in each of his last nine league starts of the season, as well as in the Champions League final, while Rudiger hit this line in six of his last eight league starts.
Both play similar roles for their country, albeit Kante may be a little bit deeper which is a slight concern, but I’d still expect him to be on it from minute one.
To boost our price, I’m also going to back Griezmann and Serge Gnabry to have a shot on target each to receive excellent odds of 10/1.
Griezmann looks under-rated both in the SOT market (8/15) and anytime goalscorer market (14/5, Sky Bet) given that he takes penalties and has scored in four of his last five internationals, while Gnabry is clearly Germany’s main man having scored 16 goals in his 22 caps.
France to score & both teams to receive a card @ 21/20 (bet365)
France to win & earn 4+ corners, both teams to receive a second half card @ 10/1 (bet365)
Ngolo Kante 3+ tackles, Antonio Rudiger 2+ tackles, Antoine Griezmann & Serge Gnabry 1+ shot on target each @ 10/1 (bet365)
Griezmann to score anytime @ 14/5 (Sky Bet)